Fantasy Football: Evaluating Le’Veon Bell’s present, future value
By Donnie Druin
Future
If I’m claiming Le’Veon Bell’s future as cloudy, I better grab an umbrella for this portion of the article.
It’s not to say once Bell departs from Pittsburgh, he will become an average back. The talent is enough to carry Bell for another couple of years. The concern is it will be extremely hard to replicate the amount of individual success anywhere else in the league due to the talent that surrounds him. Bell currently runs behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, while having the privilege of playing behind a Hall of Fame quarterback.
This is, of course, under the heavy assumption Bell cannot reach a deal after the season is over. Given the lack of success in the past two seasons, it’s more probable than not we will see Bell walk away from the negotiation table, should he even desire to approach it after the season ends. In all technicalities, the Steelers could franchise tag Bell a third time, but the costs would be astronomical. Pittsburgh would owe 144 percent of the Bell’s salary or average of the top five salaries at the highest paid position (Bell would be making quarterback money at that point, ranging around $30 million).
As of now, the three favored front-runners to land Bell, in no order, are Cleveland, San Francisco and New York (Jets). The one common denominator? Cap space, and lots of it. Given Bell’s affinity for being paid top dollar, the above three are certainly capable of paying a king’s ransom.
Cleveland is the least likely destination, unless revenge is on the front of Le’Veon’s mind. The Jets are a favored spot due to the insane amount of cap, and should money be Bell’s absolute selling point, New York has as good of a shot as anybody to land him. San Francisco can offer Bell the dollar signs he desires, along with a better chance of being competitive in comparison to the other two teams.
Alongside impressive cap space, the above three teams listed aren’t exactly the most talented in the league, as all three teams mentioned picked in the top ten of last year’s NFL Draft, with two (Cleveland No. 1, New York No. 3) picking at the very top of the draft. Although San Francisco remains a dark horse pick to make a deep playoff run and Cleveland continues to gain more hype as the season draws closer, neither team possesses an offense built for his success.
Perhaps one of the more overlooked factors for Le’Veon’s long-term worth is his age. Bell will enter the 2019 season at the age of 28, being oh-so close to the historical declining age of 30 that is notorious for players at his position. Given his mileage and injury history, Bell is not necessarily a guarantee to continue his high level of play into his 30s despite his big frame.
A study ran by FantasyPros that takes a deep dive into running back careers and their peaks/valleys shows significant evidence ball carriers tend to decay after the age of 27, the precise age Bell is at this season. Another study done by ESPN reflects the same beliefs, showing a steep drop-off in production after the ripe age of 27. As great as Bell has been through the trials and tribulations of his career, his decline may be brewing sooner than some think thanks in part to his heavy usage. Bell’s talents are special. His health/body, however, is not, and father time still remains undefeated when it comes to aging athletes.
Moving forward from 2019 and beyond, Bell will see a decline in value for the obvious reasons. In re-draft and even keeper leagues, he still dictates a first round grade until we see real reason to give him the 2018 LeSean McCoy treatment. The main concern rests within many dynasty league owners. The decision to keep or sell Bell is one that must be weighed with so many different factors.
Next: NFL 2018: Ranking all 32 starting RBs
Since so much is unknown, it’s hard to dictate where Bell stands for the remainder of his career. What we do know is Bell has been one of the best running backs since his entrance in the league, and although he’s closing in on the oh-so-despised 30-year old club, it’s better to bet on the talents of Bell for a few more seasons if you’re in the business of winning championships. For the past two seasons, Le’Veon Bell has bet on himself. Maybe it’s time we start betting on him, too.