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New York Jets: Sam Darnold vs. top 3 NFL Draft selections

By Michael Pallas

LANDOVER, MD - AUGUST 16: Quarterback Sam Darnold #14 of the New York Jets scrambles with the ball in the first quarter of a preseason game against the Washington Redskins at FedExField on August 16, 2018 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
LANDOVER, MD - AUGUST 16: Quarterback Sam Darnold #14 of the New York Jets scrambles with the ball in the first quarter of a preseason game against the Washington Redskins at FedExField on August 16, 2018 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /
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For one final time, let’s dispel the myth of New York Jets starting quarterback Sam Darnold being better off sitting Week 1 instead of starting.

After trading with the Indianapolis Colts, the New York Jets selected Sam Darnold with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Since then, the debate has been as to whether or not he should start Week 1 of the regular season.

Some are already comparing it to David Carr and the offensive line issues that he was forced to deal with in Houston. However, that’s ludicrous, because this would be only one season behind a terrible offensive line, and people would be making the assumption that, going forward, Mike Maccagnan wouldn’t even address that issue. We don’t know if he will or won’t. So that’s an unfair assumption.

Now, let’s look at the notion that starting Week 1 as a rookie will ruin a career, and those that start later do better. Michael Nania of Gang Green Nation explored the idea based on average win total. Based on information he gathered, first round picks since 1996 who started 16 games as rookies averaged more wins than their counterparts by a margin of 7.0-3.3.

Since Darnold was the third overall pick, let’s take a deeper dive at top-three picks in the NFL Draft in the timeframe Nania looked at.

Since 1996, Darnold is the 26th quarterback taken in the top three. Of the other 25, 15 have started Week 1 as rookies. Those 15 players have combined for a 61.7 percent completion percentage, a .526 winning percentage and an 86.9 passer rating in 1,247 games. The other 10 have combined for 1,051 games played with .511 winning percentage, 60.0 percent completion percentage, and a passer rating of 84.0.

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Typically, 60 percent is the breaking point for the top quarterbacks in terms of completion percentage. When it comes to the 15 quarterbacks who started Week 1 as rookies, eight of them have career completion percentages over 60 percent.

As you can see, performance isn’t better for the top picks at quarterback if they sit and wait. In the end, starting a quarterback later only hinders growth. Subsequently, Darnold should absolutely start Week 1.

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