Fantasy Football 2018: Beware these 5 sophomore slumps

The sophomore slump is inevitable for some players, but who exactly will befall such a tragedy in fantasy football 2018? Beware of these five players, because the warning signs are all there.

The sophomore slump exists in many walks of life. In fantasy football, it is something to dread. Was that performance by that rookie real or not? Can he duplicate, or ideally, build upon a nice start and become even better in his second season? Or was it fluky, and defenses will learn how to slow down this guy in the immediate future?

Fantasy Football 2017 was an overstuffed season for rookie breakouts, from the elite running backs to the useful wide receivers. Even a number of quarterbacks were handed the full reins of teams who strive for postseason berths. But not all of these guys are going to continue on their upward trajectory for fantasy football 2018. Spotting and avoiding sophomore slumps is a key technique to getting the most out of your fantasy lineup. Beware of these five players!

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Fantasy Football 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

There are degrees to sophomore slumping. No one expects Kareem Hunt to necessarily break off 50-yard touchdown runs every week like he did at the start of his rookie season. No one expects Alvin Kamara to average over six yards per carry and score more than a dozen touchdowns. But these guys are still likely to be focal points of their teams’ offenses. I wouldn’t personally feel comfortable backing Kamara as an elite back for the entirety of his sophomore season with my first-round pick, but that is going out on a thin limb.

There are more likely sophomores to slump. One comes off the board very soon after the likes of Hunt and Kamara. Leonard Fournette had a very good rookie year. But a few things play against him.

First, he isn’t an asset in the passing game, which hurts his fantasy value, especially in PPR leagues. Second, he wasn’t very efficient last year, averaging fewer than four yards per carry. Third, he missed games due to injury and breaking team rules. And lastly, the Jacksonville offense has a dearth of weapons, meaning defenses will be focusing on Fournette even more in his sophomore year. I’d be worried.

Ineffectiveness shouldn’t be an issue for Tarik Cohen, Chicago’s sophomore back, but playing time could be. Last year, he was a change-of-pace play alongside Jordan Howard. This year, according to preseason reports, Howard is trying to be more involved in the passing game. This is bad news for Cohen, who showed himself a good receiving back, but showed spotty play out of the backfield. He fumbled three times with fewer than 90 carries and finished with less than 10 yards on the ground in half his games. If his opportunities in the passing game take a dip, he is essentially not worth owning, let alone starting on a fantasy team.

Another sophomore that has my concern is tight end Evan Engram. The position is not deep in fantasy, so it will be hard to pass on Engram in drafts forever. But with the weapons on the New York offense, and Engram’s inability to stay in the lineup in all formations, he may not see anything close to the 115 targets he garnered as a rookie.

Dan Salem:

Nothing is worse than thinking you’ve scored big in your Fantasy Football 2018 draft, only to end up with a player who slides into a sophomore slump. We rarely see it coming, but the signs are usually there. Engram is a great example of this, having benefited from injuries around him on offense last season. His production is likely to cause owners extreme anxiety, as it see-saws from week to week. The same is true of these next two players.

Cooper Kupp had an excellent season for the Los Angeles Rams, garnering 95 targets that led to nearly 900 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Yet the Rams’ offense and quarterback Jared Goff hit major highs last year, so the chances of some regression are likely. Los Angeles also added Brandin Cooks in the offseason to accompany Robert Woods. Both players will cut into Kupp’s targets, lowering his fantasy impact. He feels like a boom or bust player with a ton of weapons around him, making me extremely wary of him in 2018.

The final player I’m wary of may raise some eyebrows. Deshaun Watson played in seven games last season and put up great numbers, both in fantasy and real life. Some may argue that any change in his production cannot be considered a sophomore slump, since he is returning from a season ending injury.

Plus, he has yet to play a full season of games, so technically he is “kind of” still on his rookie season. Forget that! Watson is being drafted like a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, a player who will surely crush it week after week. Consider me skeptical, because every quarterback has had a seven game stretch of excellence. Most can’t maintain it.

Watson was certainly a special player last year, but don’t draft him to be your starter. Draft him to hopefully be your starter, but have a solid backup option. His sophomore slump potential is high, considering how the Texans bottomed out without him. If he has any kind of a slow start, the team might lose itself all over again.