Baltimore Ravens rookie Hayden Hurst could miss the first weeks of the regular season with a foot injury. What is his fantasy football outlook now?
Hayden Hurst reportedly is set to miss the next 3-4 weeks after undergoing a procedure on a stress fracture in his foot. Hurst was the first pick for the Baltimore Ravens in the 2018 NFL Draft and was the first tight end selected in the class.
This is a huge blow for Hurst starting out his career, but the Ravens can live without him for a few weeks. Most young tight ends don’t make a real impact to their squad in their rookie season. Tight end is one of the hardest positions to learn.
Not only do they have to learn the route tree, but they also have to learn everything about the blocking scheme. They must memorize every single formation and where they have to line up, and whether they are on or off the line of scrimmage. Nowadays, tight ends line up all over the field including in the backfield and splitting out wide.
Needless to say, the learning curve for the position is a huge one. The only other person on the field that must know more than the tight end is the quarterback. To top it off, once you have all the knowledge and have earned the right to step on the field, now you have to earn the trust from your quarterback in order to get him to throw you the ball.
Chemistry between quarterbacks and pass-catchers is very important in the NFL as there are route options based on what look the defense is showing pre-snap. Not only that, but every player runs routes a little different because every player is different. The more times you throw the ball to a receiver, the more the relationship grows between the passer and catcher.
Rookies at any position in fantasy football are a risky proposition. Most rookies are drafted way too high, and the statistical return is way too low in relation. Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt being league-leaders in fantasy last year was a complete outlier to normal trends. Pump the breaks on the rookies, and even more so on tight ends this season.
Before the injury, Hurst was No. 3 on the depth chart behind Nick Boyle and former second-round pick Maxx Williams. There was little to no chance he was going to be the Ravens starter in Week 1, and it will be tough for him to gain the starting tight end spot by the end of the season — especially now that he’s starting the year injured.
In Year 1, Hurst is probably going to be used as a receiving threat who can line up everywhere, but don’t expect him to play on every down. When he gets healthy, watch for him on third downs and in the red zone offense. Hurst’s fantasy impact is going to come down to touchdowns and big plays, kind of like Ricky Seals-Jones for the Arizona Cardinals last season. The volume will not be there due to the lack of playing time.
Hopefully, you didn’t already draft Hurst as your top tight end, and you can just drop him now. If you did, pick up Charles Clay, Austin Seferian-Jenkins or even Coby Fleener.
Clay should get it done with a new Buffalo Bills quarterback, no matter who it is. Seferian-Jenkins and Fleener are both very risky, but both offer much more upside then Clay. Either Seferian-Jenkins or Fleener have the talent to be top-10 fantasy options by the end of the year.