NFL Week 1, 2018: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

NFL Week 1 might be the toughest to pick games. Fortunately you have us, the experts, and your Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for NFL Week 1.

We’re back for another NFL season, and it’s time to make picks against the spread. Last year, Todd Salem barely hung around .500 while Dan Salem excelled. This, though, is the start of another year! NFL Week 1 games are always the toughest to predict because, despite preseason prognostications, we don’t really know anything yet. This time last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams were supposed to stink. They all made the playoffs, and Philadelphia won the Super Bowl.

Furthermore, the Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders were supposed to be division winners, but they both missed the playoffs entirely. In NFL Week 1 we just don’t know anything yet. To make matters worse, the sports books know we don’t know anything yet. Only two games have a line of more than a touchdown. Thankfully you have us, and these are your Best Picks Against the Spread for NFL Week 1! All lines via Odds Shark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL Week1 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 0-0
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 0-0

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Arizona Cardinals Pick’Em vs. Washington Redskins

There is quite a bit of variance on this game across books. I’ll take the home Cardinals on the lower end, with the line as low as a pick’em. It’s true that I don’t yet see much of a difference between these squads, but Washington was just 2-6 on the road last year. And the Redskins are a bit disheveled entering NFL Week 1 to boot. They have a new quarterback and new backfield rotation to integrate. Arizona isn’t business-as-usual by any means, but the safety of home field and return of David Johnson cover a lot of other questions.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Oakland Raiders

It feels super risky to grab a road favorite right off the bat, but I like the value here. The Rams have that “super team” vibe going, but instead of crumbling under expectations, they will look to come out of the gate very hot. And the Raiders feel the exact opposite. Are they packing it in before even getting started? By trading away their best player prior to NFL Week 1, it sends a very worrisome message to fans and players in the locker room. Also, this will be our first glimpse of 2018 Jon Gruden on the sidelines. I’ll lay four on the road.

By the way, have you ever heard of this scenario playing out in the NFL before in our lifetimes? The Raiders (supposedly) did not have enough money on hand to pay Khalil Mack‘s guaranteed portion of a potential extension up front. Player salaries and the salary cap keep rising year after year, but that doesn’t mean team profits do as well. Unless they were just using that as an excuse, this is certainly bizarre for 21st century football.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Baltimore Ravens -7 vs. Buffalo Bills

Talk about a fall from grace for a playoff darling from last season, but that is the state of the Buffalo Bills. They opted for an unproven quarterback over their rookie and seem to have question marks across much of their offense and defense. Add in the positive energy bursting from the Baltimore Ravens, and this is an easy pick. The Ravens are at home and should easily handle what amounts to a hapless Buffalo team. I’m putting the Bills on blowout alert.

New York Jets +6.5 at Detroit Lions

Everyone is writing off the New York Jets because they are starting a rookie quarterback and coming off a poor season in terms of wins and losses. Yet the New York defense is going to be excellent, especially against the pass. Throwing the football might be the only strength of the Lions, meaning the two teams’ strengths cancel out and it comes down to the Detroit defense stopping a solid New York offensive attack.

The Jets can run the football well and they are getting nearly a touchdown. This will be a close game at worst, one in which the Jets have all the momentum. Take the points and the road team on Monday Night Football.