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NFL Week 3: What does history tell us about teams starting 0-2?

By Russell S. Baxter

ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 16: Jaylon Smith #54 of the Dallas Cowboys hits Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on September 16, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 16: Jaylon Smith #54 of the Dallas Cowboys hits Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on September 16, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /
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Losing your first two games doesn’t usually add up to a successful year for NFL teams. But recent history says pump the brakes on the gloom and doom.

If you haven’t seen the numbers yet, you will on numerous occasions and in all forms of media. It’s the promising 2-0 start and the dreaded 0-2 start for NFL teams entering Week 3. Since the league expanded the playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the former has seen well more than half of those clubs earn a postseason invitation. As for the latter, well, not so much.

But when you take a look at the recent numbers, there’s been more than a glimmer of hope for clubs that have struggled out of the gate. And if the last few years are any indication, the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Oakland Raiders, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks shouldn’t be counted on, despite dropping their first two contests in 2018.

Here are the raw statistics: 228 teams opened 2-0 from 1990-2017 and 142 of them reached the playoffs, a respectable 62.3 percent. Over that same time frame, only 28-of-231 clubs (12.1 percent) managed to earn a postseason berth after losing their first two outings of the season. That’s pretty depressing if you’re one of those seven aforementioned teams.

Back in 2008, the Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings and then-San Diego Chargers bounced back from 0-2 to reach the postseason. A year later, the drought began. From 2009-12, there were 30 examples of teams losing their first two games and none managed to make a playoff appearance.

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But as of late, at least one team has managed to overcome such a start and gotten to the Super Bowl Tournament. Dating back to 2013, we have seen six different examples of a club starting 0-2 and making the playoffs:

  • 2013: Carolina Panthers
  • 2014: Indianapolis Colts
  • 2015: Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks
  • 2016: Miami Dolphins
  • 2017: New Orleans Saints

Not only did the 2013 Panthers, 2014 Colts, 2015 Texans and 2017 Saints reach the playoffs, all won division titles.

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And it’s also worth a mention that four times (1993 Dallas Cowboys, 1996 and 2001 New England Patriots and 2007 New York Giants), a team has rebounded to reach the Super Bowl after dropping its first two games of the season. And only the 1996 Pats were the only one of the four not to hoist a Lombardi Trophy by season’s end. But that’s a story for another day.

Hence, be wary before declaring the 2018 season over for the Bills, Texans, Raiders, Giants, Lions, Cardinals and Seahawks.

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