Does anyone else feel foolish about last week’s outcomes? NFL Week 5 is when things normalize, because September is over and the season is on the line. We know who is good by now, and these are your best picks against the spread.
We almost fell into another tie in NFL Week 4. It would have been the third already of this very young season. Of course, unlike Frank Reich, playing for a Houston-Indianapolis tie would still have benefited Todd.
It would have been a victory for the Texans against the spread. It would also have given us three of our four picks last week who covered, but didn’t win. Todd had his first 2-0 week of the season, which was much overdue and much appreciated. Dan hung in there and remains at .500 thus far.
In NFL Week 5 its time to believe your eyes, because September is over and the season is on the line for most NFL teams. We’ve witnessed patterns of success and failure. Now its time to put that knowledge to good use. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 5. All lines are via Odds Shark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 5 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 4-4
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 3-5
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 at Houston Texans
There are a number of games this week that I wished were offering that extra half point. As of Tuesday, Dallas is one of the few getting it. The Cowboys are surely not a great football team, but this is a pick against Houston.
Ezekiel Elliott is getting rolling, having increased his rushing total in each game this season. And the Texans have one of the poorer pass defenses in the league, which could finally open up the field for Dak Prescott. Houston hadn’t been able to get its offense going before last week, but more alarming is how the defense continues to struggle, even with all those star players on that side of the ball.
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Cleveland Browns
The Browns are half a point away from being 4-0 ATS. Baltimore is a short week road game against a division rival away from the same. While Cleveland feels like its just hanging around, though, Baltimore looks like a major playoff contender. There is no one in the AFC with a better point differential than the Ravens, and only the Rams top them in all of football.
Expect Joe Flacco to keep things rolling against a pass defense that’s been bending but not breaking to this point. And wish Baker Mayfield luck throwing against the defense allowing the lowest opposing completion percentage, lowest yards per attempt through the air, and lowest quarterback rating in the sport.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Washington Redskins +7 at New Orleans Saints
The Redskins have been sneaky good this season, showing dominant offense against suspect defense. They easily defeated the Cardinals and Packers, and enter week 5 off their bye. This means Washington has had two weeks to prepare for the porous Saints’ defense. New Orleans may be winning, but they are giving up a lot of points. Consider me dubious of their ability to put anyone away, so take the touchdown with the Redskins. These are two very good football teams.
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Vikings had one bad game and are being written off by the sports books. Philadelphia hasn’t played a good game all year, but is getting the benefit of the doubt because they are home in NFL week 5. Believe your eyes. The Eagles are barely getting by opponents, while Minnesota truly hung with the best team in the league last week.
Don’t expect the Minnesota offense to suddenly evaporate against the Eagles’ defense. Los Angeles is better than Philadelphia. Take the 3.5 points, because the Vikings are still very good. Don’t let the spread fool you.