NFL Week 6, 2018: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

With so many teams going against script, we feel fortunate to be at .500 so far. NFL Week 6 is where the tide turns. Your best picks against the spread.

NFL Week 6 is dominated by home underdogs. This is not a common occurrence overall, which makes sense. Books (and the public) usually count home field as being worth roughly three points, so for a home team to be the underdog, the opponent has to be deemed at least four points better in a hypothetical neutral site.

There have been just 21 home dogs through five complete weeks of the season. In NFL Week 6, though, there are seven more home underdogs, including a whopping six getting a field goal or more. Those previous 21 dogs have collected a record ATS of 14-7. Let’s use this to our advantage. These are your best picks against the spread. All lines are via Odds Shark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 6 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 5-5
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 4-6

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Tennessee Titans +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Titans just lost on the road to the Bills. That’s pretty bad. The Ravens just lost on the road to the Browns. That is also bad. Tennessee has managed to play better at home, as one would expect, while also keeping every game close. All five of its games have been within one score and the last four have all been three-point games or closer.

Baltimore, meanwhile, has single-handedly thrown the AFC North into tumult with its play on the road. The Ravens have gotten smoked by Cincinnati, lost to Cleveland, and easily defeated Pittsburgh. Which of those outcomes actually makes sense? I’ll rely on Tennessee’s home steadiness over Baltimore’s flakiness to keep this one close.

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 at New England Patriots

I was prepared to select two home underdogs this week, but the Kansas City line cannot be ignored. It feels like a trap. The Patriots are a very public team; with the decline of the Cowboys and Packers, perhaps the biggest public team in the sport right now. That will skew every line in the favor of Pats’ opponents, in the attempt to get equal action. But what evidence do we have that NE is better than KC?

The Chiefs can score on anyone. They have done so on the road, in tough environments. The defense even stepped up finally last week. But even if that doesn’t continue, a shootout is exactly how Kansas City wants to play anyway. The Chiefs are 5-0 straight-up and against the spread, and have scored at least 27 in every game this season. I certainly don’t foresee the Patriots defense putting an end to that.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 at Dallas Cowboys

Jacksonville did not look great against the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but no one has against the current best team in the NFL. The Jaguars still have a very good defense and just added Jamaal Charles to help their injured running game. More to the point, Dallas is a bad football team right now. The Cowboys have an excellent running back and solid quarterback, but a suspect offensive line and no real receiving threat. Jacksonville’s defensive front is going to eat them up.

I don’t love giving points on the road, but this is the exception. The Jaguars are giving less than a field goal, begging people to put money on America’s team. Don’t do it. Jacksonville is one of the best and Dallas is anything but. Take the road team in what should be a bounce back victory for the Jaguars.

Carolina Panthers +1.5 at Washington Redskins

Carolina keeps squeaking by their opponents, but they’re winning all the same. The Panthers have a very good defense and do just enough on offense to stay ahead of average competition. Facing the Redskins is not going to change this dynamic. Washington could barely muster an offense against New Orleans, who has not been playing much defense all season. Granted, the Saints were running up the score. But excuses have no place on the football field.

How do you think the Redskins will fare against a very good defense? Take the Panthers and the points. Since we’re getting 1.5 points here, this is basically a pick in favor of Carolina. But we have the added bonus of winning our bet if Washington manages to squeak out a one point victory. If they win, that’s how it will happen.