NFL Week 7, 2018: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

The AFC South burned us bad last week, but something keeps pulling us back. NFL Week 7 is when the season turns and we set the record straight. These are your best picks against the spread.

Its time to wash the stink from our mouths. The AFC South let both of us down in a major way last week. Blowout losses by the Titans and Jaguars did two things. It knocked us both below .500 against the spread this year, and it may have edged the South into “worst division” title belt holder yet again.

We thought the NFC East was most deserving of that distinction through five weeks, but take a look at the AFC South’s resume: 1. No team with a winning record 2. Collectively four games under .500 straight-up 3. Collectively six games under .500 ATS 4. No team with a positive point differential 5. Only seven total wins outside of the division in 18 chances

Something keeps bringing us back to this division, but let’s not ignore the actual best teams in the league. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 7. All lines are via Odds Shark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 7 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 5-7
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 5-7

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Houston Texans +5.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The South can burn me again, but only if it devours its own. Houston and Jacksonville are heading in opposite directions. Though I don’t think the Jaguars’ 33-point loss to Dallas is representative of their true talent level, this is now two huge losses in a row for them and three losses in their last four games. They thankfully are headed back home, but more than location has submarined this playoff hopeful.

At the same time as Jacksonville’s collapse, the Texans have won three games in a row. All three wins came by a single score, but so did all three of the team’s losses to start the year. Houston seems to be hitting these opponents at the right time now, and Jacksonville falls into that same grouping. It may not win outright in a tough environment, but a road cover is easily within reach.

Washington Redskins -1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

While the 33-point loss for Jacksonville isn’t representative, the other side of the coin is true too. No other evidence points to Dallas being a real, high-scoring team this year. It was the 26th-ranked offense and 29th-ranked passing offense before that game. Though five games is a small sample as well, it is hard to trust anything off of one game. Which makes this line so interesting.

Washington, who has been arguably the steadiest NFC East team all year, just has to win by two points at home against a team playing above its head. The Redskins don’t have players that jump off the page or are worthy of headlines, but they are getting the job done. The whole team feels like a bunch of Alex Smiths at this point, and it’s working for them.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Kansas City Chiefs -6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

There are so few teams I trust right now, but the Chiefs are one of them. Even in a losing effort, they looked stellar. Kansas City isn’t playing much defense and the Bengals are pretty good this season, but I’m confident the Chiefs will avenge their loss to New England with a home victory against Cincinnati. They are scoring a ton of points and I do not believe the Bengals can keep up. Chiefs win by at least a touchdown.

Cleveland Browns +3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is more of a pick against the Buccaneers, who are looking more and more like the team we thought they were to start the season. Firing your defensive coordinator before midseason is dangerous and won’t suddenly make Tampa Bay play solid defense. You know who is quietly playing good defense? Cleveland is playing well defensively and getting to the quarterback consistently. The Browns are also finding an offensive groove.

My money is on Baker Mayfield to rebound with a victory for his team, yet that doesn’t actually have to happen. We are getting more than a field goal with this wager. Take the points and let the rookie lead you to victory.