We’ve turned the corner on this wacky season and are continuing a winning trend. Take points and back home teams. Both is even better. Your NFL Week 10 best picks against the spread.
A somewhat horrible slate of games ended up delivering some interesting stories last week. We found out about Nick Mullens; the Chargers continue to keep pace with the Chiefs; New Orleans won the ultimate shootout of the season over Los Angeles; and Michael Jordan told us about Tom Brady versus Aaron Rodgers during every commercial break.
In NFL Week 10, we are back to just four teams on bye but also some disgusting prime time matchups. Does the Giants versus Nick Mullens interest anyone outside of the Mullens family? Even the normally enticing Eagles-Cowboys matchup can’t generate much buzz this time around.
Overall, six total games this week have lines between four and 6.5 points, which normally means the books don’t quite know what to do. We aren’t buying it! Take the points and/or the home teams. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 10. All lines are via Odds Shark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 10 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 10-8
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 10-8
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Buffalo Bills +7.5 at New York Jets
You want to know something that seems ridiculous until you actually think about it? The Buffalo Bills have the second-best defense in the NFL according to DVOA. It seems absurd that a team that gives up so many points could be good, but it’s really the offense that continues to put the defense in unwinnable positions. Opponent points count the same for a game spread, regardless of how they’re scored, but it speaks to some level of quality talent on the defensive side of the ball.
And that should worry New York. The Jets, pretty good on defense in their own right, are really bad offensively. The Bills are horrendous offensively, but really this comes down to a belief that the Jets could possibly outscore a Buffalo defense by enough to cover 7.5 points. I’m not buying it.
New York Giants +3 at San Francisco 49ers
Maybe Nick Mullens is a really good NFL quarterback. Or, and hear me out, maybe the undrafted rookie who threw 46 interceptions and completed just 60 percent of his passes in college is not. It is hard to find anything for the Giants to be excited about at this stage of the season, but putting a stop to the Mullens bandwagon in a prime time contest actually seems like something that could unite the defense. He could do that to Oakland, but he won’t be repeating it.
These teams are two of the favorites to earn the number one pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, so no one is very good at anything. But the Giants at least have star players that can change a game. Combined with an emotional response to slow down Mullens-mania, and I see New York winning outright on the road, even if it’s not the best thing for its future. I’ll take the +3.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Cleveland Browns +5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Home teams usually give up three points by default, so this is actually eight points in favor of the Browns. The sneaky truth is that Cleveland is a decent football team, better than Atlanta by all accounts. Their defense is better and their offense has kept them in almost every game this season. Homefield advantage is real and the Falcons have given me no reason to trust them. I’m backing Baker Mayfield on his home turf. Take the points.
Kansas City Chiefs -16.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
This week is all about homefield advantage for me and picking better teams against weaker opponents. Kansas City over Arizona is another example of this, in the extreme case. The Chiefs are one of the top three teams, while the Cardinals might be the worst team in the league. Don’t let the line scare you, because this will not be a close football game.
If Kansas City was on the road, then MAYBE I would be scared off by laying over two touchdowns. Has Arizona even scored more than 20 points all season? Has anyone stopped the Chiefs from scoring more than 28 in a game? Don’t go look at the actual numbers. Trust Kansas City to whoop up on the Cards.