With only a few teams playing like locks to win, our NFL Week 11 picks are slim. Several of our best teams are playing one another! These are your best picks against the spread.
On Monday Night Football in San Francisco, a number of players were slipping and sliding in the early portion of the contest. The cameras caught Saquon Barkley changing to longer cleats. No big deal. Apparently the field conditions for the upcoming MNF game in NFL Week 11 are a much bigger deal.
Reports indicate Rams and Chiefs players were considering skipping the game in Mexico City because of concerns about playing conditions. The league decided to move the game to Los Angeles, throwing a wrench into the betting line. The opening line for this NFL Week 11 contest, thought to be played in a neutral site, was Rams -2.5 points.
It will be interesting to see how much it moves now. Common sense would place the new line at Rams -5.5 or -6 now that they have a true home game, but that feels too high for a matchup of this caliber. Regardless, two teams that have been guaranteed locks to win are facing off, leaving the pickings slim. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 11. All lines are via Odds Shark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 11 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 11-9
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 12-8
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Tennessee Titans +2.5 at Indianapolis Colts
I hate to piggyback on the Titans’ big win over New England. One would expect a letdown after such a powerful upset. And yet, look at the line. I expected this spread to be somewhere close to even. Instead, the home Colts are giving almost the standard field goal. The line didn’t really adjust at all based on last week’s outcome. Tennessee is 6-3 ATS this season, tied for the third-best mark in the sport. Everything is trending the Titans’ way, including value on this line.
Washington Redskins +3 vs. Houston Texans
Overall this season, home underdogs are three games over .500. Every team in the sport besides Washington is exactly .500 as a home dog; the Skins are 3-0 and are propping up the rest. They aren’t flawless at home and have struggled in other games as a favorite, but whenever people underestimate this squad, it comes through.
And the defense has been superb against everyone besides the upper echelon of opposing offenses. The Texans certainly don’t fall into that category. The group ranks just 25th offensively for the season and has scored fewer than 21 points four of the past five weeks despite winning each game.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pittsburgh proved two things with their blowout victory over Carolina last week. They are a playoff team and very good defense cannot stop them. Jacksonville no longer has a very good defense and playing at home will not save them against the Steelers. This line is too generous in my opinion, a nod to who the Jaguars were last year. Pittsburgh is on fire, playing with a major chip on their shoulder. Feel good about giving up less than a touchdown in this game.
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 at Atlanta Falcons
Call this a gut reaction, but I loved how Dallas dismantled the Eagles’ defense. They erased all memory of their disappointing loss from a week prior and handed it to a division rival. Atlanta’s defense is significantly worse, meaning the Cowboys will have little trouble scoring on the Falcons. What is unknown is whether they can stop Matt Ryan and his offense from garnering more points on the scoreboard.
This will likely be a close game, which is why taking over a field goal is gold. The Cowboys can smell their division title, while the Falcons have all but fallen out of contention. This game means more to Dallas and I’m sticking by their running game. Take the points and ride with America’s team.