New York Jets: Is Le’Veon Bell’s value related to elite wide receiver play?

The New York Jets have the room to sign Le’Veon Bell, but could their draft position to grab an elite receiver affect their pursuit of the free agent?

All the talk seems to be about whether or not the New York Jets should sign Le’Veon Bell during the offseason. Most Jets fans are on the side of signing him, and it makes sense given his production so far in his career. But how the Jets finish the 2018 season and fall in the 2019 draft order could affect whether or not it makes sense to go after Bell, or play the running back by committee game.

Jets fans and media seem split on the idea on whether or not to sign the disgruntled potentially soon-to-be former Steeler. The Jets have the cap space, and he’s been a productive player from the beginning of his career. However, he hasn’t exactly shown to be a team player this season by sitting out.

Both sides of the argument are valid reasons for wanting or not wanting Bell on the team. There’s one question that needs to be asked. Why do we assume that without a player the caliber of Antonio Brown on the outside — limiting eight-man boxes — that his production would be the same?

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Bell only faced eight in the box 19.94 percent of the time in 2017. That was the seventh lowest total in the NFL among those that qualified. A lot of that has to do with Brown on the outside. The Jets don’t have that guy right now, but they could.

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According to Tankathon, the Jets sit in the fourth overall spot in the 2019 NFL Draft. That leaves them with two options: go for the offensive lineman or the playmaker at wide receiver. There is a good playmaker at wide receiver in the draft at the top, and his name is A.J. Brown (yes it would be another Brown and Bell situation).

Here’s the draft situation for the Jets. The Raiders would likely draft Nick Bosa if they finish with the No. 1 overall pick. However, the Cardinals and 49ers both sit in front of the Jets at the moment in the draft order, and they both need No. 1 receivers for the quarterback they believe to be the future of their respective franchises.

The Jets can’t expect to get lucky in the draft two years in a row and have the player they need to fall into their laps in the draft. Even though I think Bell would be a great addition to the Jets, we’ve only see him play one game without Antonio Brown on the field with him, and that’s not a large enough sample size to make any judgments from.

According to Next Gen Stats, Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa and Jermaine Kearse are all getting average cushion of more than six yards at the line of scrimmage. Despite this, only one of them is creating above average separation — Enunwa. Kearse is at the league average of separation, and Anderson is below it. These numbers are despite eight men in the box 35 percent of the time for Bilal Powell and 26.32 percent of the time for Isaiah Crowell.

We should expect similar numbers — if not greater — with a talent like Bell in the backfield. The Jets will need a No. 1 receiver in tandem with Bell to make the signing more viable. It would take A.J. Brown some time to establish himself, but if he does, then it’s off to the races. Without the true No. 1 receiver, Bell would likely not be able to match his production from Pittsburgh.

It’s not as much a slam dunk must-sign as people believe it to be. There are a lot more things to consider before we make that definitive statement.