Its been a roller coaster season in which the lines reflect the constant shifts in team dominance. What can we learn from this? Take the points when its seems too good to be true. Your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 13.
It may seem super intriguing to grab New Orleans on Thursday night of Week 13 giving a touchdown at Dallas, but we must caution that impulse. Just stay away. Home teams are surprisingly amazing on Thursday Night Football. Through 12 weeks, they have accumulated a 9-4-1 record against the spread. Since 2016, that record is 30-17-2! Maybe you think being the favorite should supersede remaining at home on a short week. Just be prudent out there.
If we’ve learned anything over the season thus far, its that some lines appear too good to be true, yet they are! Take those points, because the game is likely to be close. Favoritism is dead. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 13. All lines are via Odds Shark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 13 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 13-11
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 13-11
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
San Francisco 49ers +10 at Seattle Seahawks
I was waiting for the point when Seattle became overvalued. We have reached it. The Seahawks are a pretty solid team all-around. But recent results aren’t as positive as they would seem. They have won by a field goal each of the past two weeks, simply bringing their record in one-score games to 3-4. Call it positive regression in close matches but not a trend of something new. And they are just 2-2 at home. Nick Mullens has been exposed for San Francisco. That alone doesn’t mean San Fran can’t cover double digits.
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
This pick is nothing more than grabbing value against a public team. A nationwide fan base favors and backs teams like Pittsburgh, slightly bumping lines up in certain scenarios. This is one of those scenarios. Who thinks the Steelers are actually better than Los Angeles?
Besides special teams and pass rush, Pittsburgh isn’t better than LA at anything macro, and Joey Bosa is back to beef up the latter. The Chargers haven’t lost a single game outside of Los Angeles all season. I actually wish Pitt had not lost last week to Denver; this line could have been even higher.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
These are two teams that know each other well, on opposite trajectories this season. Tampa Bay is below average, while the Panthers remain solid, despite their recent losing streak. Its that very stumble which keeps this line close. Carolina plays excellent defense and is due for a bounce back victory to keep its playoff hopes alive. They are just the team to return Jameis Winston down to Earth and remind us of why he was benched in the first place. I’m giving the field goal in a must win game for one of the NFC’s better teams.
Washington Redskins +7 at Philadelphia Eagles
This line intrigues me and has everything to do with Colt McCoy and Mark Sanchez. Washington has been better than Philadelphia all season, yet their recent loss to Dallas made everyone panic. The Eagles beating New York means nothing. The Eagles beating the Redskins would mean something, but what indication do you have that this Philadelphia team can pull away from the Redskins when both teams are fighting for the NFC East title?
Both of these teams are limping towards the finish and the Eagles are the safe pick in this game straight up, but we are picking against the spread. I’m taking the touchdown because Philadelphia’s passing defense is awful. They aren’t beating anyone by much.