Cincinnati Bengals: How they could still make the 2018 Playoffs

Have One Of Their Rivals Fall Off

Cincinnati stands behind both Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the standings right now. Even if they win out, it’s unfathomable that they could still actually steal the division from both teams. With the Chargers (or Kansas City) almost certainly taking the No. 5 seed, the No. 6 spot is the only one really available, and the Bengals’ division mate who doesn’t get the AFC North crown is likely going to be first in line for the final postseason opening.

With that in mind, one of those teams needs to take a step back for the Bengals to have a chance here.

Schedule-wise, Pittsburgh seems like they could have a tougher go of things between the two. While they have games against these Bengals and the Raiders, the other two contests do not favor them. They have to first try beating New England, a team which is 11-3 overall (6-2 at Heinz Field) against them in the Brady-Belichick era; then, they must beat a New Orleans team which is averaging 34.9 points per game (tied-second in the NFL) and is set for a bye week in the NFC playoffs.

That angle won’t exactly favor the Bengals, however. Assuming they beat Oakland (also not a guarantee, given Pittsburgh’s propensity to lose games at least one game to a horrible team each year in the Mike Tomlin era), losses to New England and New Orleans would leave Pittsburgh at 8-6-1 entering the final week — making them a team desperate for a win, rather than one which no longer needs a Week 17 victory to determine their fate.

Since Cincinnati is so poor against their rivals in the Marvin Lewis era (24-8 advantage for Pittsburgh since 2003), their best bet to win in any circumstance may be playing the Steelers when Pittsburgh has nothing to play for. Otherwise, expect a shellacking.

Clearly, Baltimore is the more likely of the two to actually leave an opening. They would seem to have an easier schedule, but they are a more beatable team. They’ve done well to save their season behind a revamped, run-heavy offense led by rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson, but that offense barely trusts him to make anything but the most obvious throws. Should a team slow the run game even a little bit and force him to throw, that Baltimore offense will likely collapse into dust.

If it does, they are in trouble. There’s plenty of offensive firepower remaining on their schedule, so even if their defense plays great points could come in big enough bunches to drown out whatever their limited offense tries to do. Kansas City leads the league with 37 points per game, has failed to reach 30 only twice, and has scored at least 26 in every contest. It’s gonna be hard to keep them from reaching at least the low end of that spectrum.

Tampa Bay is still top-10 in scoring offense and has nearly made three-plus score comebacks on multiple occasions this year. The Chargers are behind only the Chiefs and Rams in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA. The Browns have already beaten the Ravens, and have been semi-competent most of the time since Hue Jackson was fired.

The perfect scenario for Cincinnati would be if Pittsburgh goes 2-1 entering Week 17 while Baltimore goes 1-2. In that case, entering the final slate we’d see Cincinnati and Baltimore at 8-7 while Pittsburgh is 9-5-1. From there, Pittsburgh is locked in as AFC North champs and probably will have nothing else to play for in the final week. Meanwhile, Baltimore could go on to beat Cleveland and still lose a tiebreaker to Cincinnati if both are 9-7.