NFL Week 15, 2018: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

As the season winds down, we must play our hand precisely. Too many teams are proving bad bets, but these four are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 15.

The betting lines for last week didn’t offer nearly as much excitement as the actual finishes to the games did. But that fact actually speaks to the level of upsets we were witnessing at the end. Of the “wild finishes” in Week 14, the only game whose ATS pick was in doubt was Philadelphia at Dallas.

The Eagles could have covered with a three-point loss in overtime. Other than that, these upsets were so unexpected that the underdogs had covered long before any flurry at the end. Oakland needed a series of events to win, but it was getting 10.5 points on the line. Miami needed a miracle play to win, but it had covered +8.5 long before.

What does this mean for NFL Week 15? Pick carefully, because anything can happen. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 15. All lines are via Odds Shark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 15 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 15-13
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 14-14

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Detroit Lions +2.5 at Buffalo Bills

Why are the Buffalo Bills favored? They just lost a “duel” against Sam Darnold in which their quarterback completed 18-of-36 passes for 5.7 yards per completion. And that was the only previous game this season where Buffalo was the favorite. They lost outright and should do the same here.

But even if something wacky happens, we have a 2.5-point buffer to work with. Detroit’s only mission will be to contain Josh Allen running the ball. Teams haven’t been able to do so recently…or they don’t care that he scrambles a bit since nothing else on Buffalo is worth game-planning against.

Carolina Panthers +6.5 vs. New Orleans Saints

I wish this line was a square seven, but I am still taking the benefit of Carolina at home. The Panthers are a different team in their own building. The straight-up record is evidence enough: 5-1 at home, 1-6 on the road. New Orleans obviously poses a major threat, but the Saints are in the midst of three straight road games, and they have looked pretty bad for most of that stretch so far.

Only a 25-0 second-half run on Sunday prevented them from dropping two straight. I don’t feel incredibly comfortable backing a team in the midst of its own five-game losing streak, but four of those losses were on the road.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Miami Dolphins +7.5 at Minnesota Vikings

Just because the Vikings fired their offensive coordinator, does not mean they will suddenly be good. Miami keeps playing above expectations, having just beaten the Patriots in an epic shootout. Both of these teams are on the cusp of the playoffs, meaning its do or die. Which team do we trust? The one that just put up over 30 points against New England, or the one that managed a garbage time touchdown with seconds to go against Seattle? I’m backing the Dolphins, plus we get 7.5 points! This is a steal of a pick.

Seattle Seahawks -5 at San Francisco 49ers

Speaking of the Seahawks, their defense looked unstoppable last week. They basically shut out the Vikings, if not for a last second touchdown. Now they face a hobbled and weak 49ers team. We know Minnesota is better than San Francisco, so what am I missing? Give up the five points. Seattle is cruising to another victory in this game. Down go the 49ers.

On a side note, I find it amusing how the Seahawks manage to find themselves an excellent defense by November and December every season. They keep surviving the early months, before locking down and snatching a playoff spot. Why don’t more teams play like this? So many are “great” in September, only to look awful by early November. Kudos to Pete Carroll and his Seahawks.