NFL Week 16, 2018: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

Its been a weird season betting against the spread, with numerous surprise teams driving us crazy. Where does that leave us for NFL Week 16? These are your best picks ATS.

The worst teams in the league against the spread this season are no surprise. They fall into one of two groups: generally bad teams or hugely disappointing teams. This only makes sense. Bad teams fail to cover, and disappointing teams have lines higher than they should until the public corrects for misguided expectations. This year, the worst teams are Atlanta, Jacksonville, Oakland, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.

On the other end, the best teams ATS don’t fit so neatly into two camps. We obviously have the elite teams and the overachievers. Four of the top five teams are Chicago, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Kansas City. But the fifth team (with the third-best record overall) fits nowhere. Even after failing to cover last week, it is the Seattle Seahawks. At 8-4-2, we don’t get it.

Seattle hasn’t been very good. It hasn’t been overly surprising or disappointing. It has just been. Yet the Seahawks have the third-best record in the sport in a metric that is supposed to account for all those various opinions. We would expect their record to head back toward .500 these final two weeks, and yet they are 4-1-1 at home and have only home games remaining.

It’s a gambling puzzle. Where does this leave us for NFL Week 16? These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 16. All lines are via Odds Shark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 16 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 15-15
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 16-14

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Washington Redskins +10 at Tennessee Titans

I’ve relied on the Washington defense for a number of covers this season. The team had been routinely underrated before Alex Smith went down. Now it is a limited team for sure, but one that is still not given credit. The Skins are still playing for a postseason berth and have a defense and special teams that keep them in games. If not for the fickle New York Giants, what would this line be? New York blew out Washington one week before getting stomped by Tennessee. I believe in getting double digits before relying on the outcome of Giants games to predict future results.

Wash and Tennessee are tied for sixth in the NFL at 8-6 ATS, but the Titans have not covered more than 5.5 points as a favorite all year.

Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Panthers still have a slim shot. The Falcons are terrible on the road, while the Panthers are pretty darn good at home. The Falcons are the worst team in the league ATS, while the Panthers are 5-2 ATS when hosting. The Panthers have lost six consecutive games, and I don’t really care. Assuming Cam Newton is ready to roll in this one, lay the three.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 at Dallas Cowboys

Tampa Bay isn’t a great football team, but I’m not convinced the Cowboys are that great either. Dallas got humiliated last week, while the Buccaneers continue to play close football games. I’d hesitate to bet on this game if the line was smaller, but more than a touchdown is perfect. The Cowboys are at home and desperately need this win, but Tampa Bay is the perfect team to play spoiler. Add in the fact that Dallas hasn’t been scoring much all season, and I like getting more than a touchdown with the road underdogs.

Chicago Bears -3.5 at San Francisco 49ers

Its no surprise that Chicago is a road favorite, but what is surprising is how few points we have to give up in this game by backing the Bears. This line has everything to do with the 49ers beating Seattle in overtime, but that was a division rivalry game and the Seahawks are nowhere near as good as the Bears.

Sure, Chicago lost to the Giants in a fluke game. But now the Bears are rolling into the playoffs, so don’t expect them to let off the gas after beating Los Angeles and Green Bay. Give up the 3.5 points and back the better team.