Betting on NFL Week 17 is all about motivation. Who has it and what matchups favor the underdog? These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 17.
The magical run of the AFC South continued through Week 16, and if not for a walk-off field goal in Philadelphia, things would look even better. It is the only division with three teams at nine wins apiece. In fact, it is the only division with three teams over .500. We could also see something miraculous if Indianapolis joins Houston in the postseason. The Texans began the year 0-3. Indy started 1-5. Such a playoff pairing has never been seen before in league history.
And yet, the division has not been anything special against the spread. Against non-division opponents, the AFC South is four games under .500. One thing doesn’t immediately declare the other, but it feels like this outcome implies that such widespread success was a bit fluky. Compare it to something like the NFC East: four blah to okay teams are a combined four games over .500 ATS outside of the division.
Of course, picking against the South or for the East this week won’t do much good. Every NFL Week 17 matchup is between divisional opponents. To limit options even further, four games were without a line as of Wednesday, and certain playoff seeds have already been clinched. The key to NFL Week 17 success is finding motivation. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 17. All lines are via Odds Shark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 17 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 17-15
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 17-15
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know the Falcons aren’t any good, especially on the road, but this feels like a bad spot for a reeling Tampa Bay. The Bucs aren’t bad on offense, but Atlanta is better. The Falcons are really bad on defense, but Tampa Bay is somehow worse. The Falcons hold steady on special teams, but that unit is a real detriment to Tampa.
Also, if this isn’t already reflected in the line at least a tad, the Buccaneers have a real incentive to lose and drop out of the current 5-10 logjam for draft pick positioning. It could potentially be the difference between drafting second overall or not even drafting in the top 10.
Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 vs. Oakland Raiders
There are a batch of games that fit into the generic description of “good team with a lot on the line versus bad team essentially playing for nothing.” How high is high enough for such a line?
I went with Kansas City for a couple reasons. The Chiefs are at home and are really good at home. The Raiders are on the road and are really bad on the road. The Chiefs are playing for a division title and a bye in the playoffs. The Raiders need to lose to get out of a logjam at the top of the draft. And KC needs a great performance to right the ship heading into the postseason, while Oakland had its coming-out performances in its final two home games before possibly leaving the city beginning immediately in 2019. Also, the league’s top offense versus a bottom three defense doesn’t hurt when covering a high spread.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:
Chicago Bears +4.5 at Minnesota Vikings
This game is a potential playoff preview, with a lot at stake for both teams. Chicago is better and aiming to secure home field advantage. Minnesota is fighting for its playoff life and at home, but I do not trust the Vikings. The Bears defense is too good and very motivated. We are also getting over a field goal, which provides some much needed protection against a close Vikings victory. With motivation as our key barometer, Chicago is a safe pick in NFL week 17.
Arizona Cardinals +14.5 at Seattle Seahawks
Neither Arizona or Seattle has much to play for, so this line feels off. The Seahawks clinched a wildcard berth already, so they can rest players as needed. The Cardinals don’t want to win because of NFL Draft positioning, but they want to win in order to end the season on a high note for their rookie quarterback. Nothing about the stakes in this matchup indicate a blowout is imminent.
The NFC West notoriously has lots of close games, with upsets abound. Arizona is not a complete slouch, so getting over two touchdowns is a solid headstart in this divisional grudge match. I don’t love the Cardinals, but I love 14.5 points against a team with little motivation.