Did the Oakland Raiders signal Karl Joseph’s imminent departure?

The Oakland Raiders selected Johnathan Abram with the 27th pick. In play style, he’s similar to Karl Joseph. What does this mean for the veteran safety?

The draft brings joy to the incoming rookies and their families, and hope to every fanbase. Once the dust settles, teams have to re-evaluate their rosters. This has been especially true for the Raiders since Jon Gruden rejoined the organization.

At this stage, fifth-year options come into question, and the Oakland Raiders have a decision to make on safety Karl Joseph‘s future.

In the post-draft press conference, general manager Mike Mayock answered an inquiry concerning a fully guaranteed fifth year for Joseph. While his response doesn’t indicate a declarative plan, there’s a reason to believe the third-year veteran may go into a contract year in 2019:

Back in February, head coach Jon Gruden spoke a different tune in regards to Joseph’s deal:

Gruden spoke in Indianapolis at the NFL Scouting Combine. Between free agency and the draft, plans can change. It seems the Raiders have at least second thoughts on the hard-hitter out of West Virginia.

On the subject of physicality, Oakland selected a trash-talking head-hunter with the 27th overall pick in Johnathan Abram. He plays like an old-school Raider—meaning his opponents feel like they’ve made it through multiple head-on collisions after playing against him.

At Mississippi State, Abram looked like a seeking missile in uniform. He closes on the action with breaking speed and wallops his target. That sounds a lot like Joseph coming out of college in 2016—only he was on the mend with a torn ACL.

Abram can cover short zones and shadow tight ends in shallow areas of the field, but he’s not accustomed to extended stretches in a deep safety role. The Raiders have used Joseph in a similar fashion over the last three years. Keep in mind he only played 49.51 percent of the defensive snaps in 2018.

Unless defensive coordinator Paul Guenther plans to use Joseph for deep coverage more often, it’s unlikely he’ll frequently share the field with Abram, who possesses similar traits.

Joseph may not see an increased workload regardless of his status for the 2020 offseason. Remember, the Raiders put him on the trade block before last year’s deadline, per Fox Sports’ NFL Insider Jay Glazer:

At 5’10”, 205 pounds, the former Mountaineer struggled against tight ends in coverage during the 2017 campaign, per Pro Football Focus’ Austin Gayle:

In 2018, the Raiders kept him closer to the line of scrimmage. Joseph was only targeted nine times in coverage and allowed five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown; he also snagged an interception, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required)

Abram lists only an inch taller and 10 pounds heavier than Joseph, but he’s had some success shadowing tight ends on intermediate routes. The Raiders probably see that as an upgrade with Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry in the division.

In the coming days, Oakland will either exercise or decline to pick up Joseph’s fifth-year option, but it seems as though his career could take a sharp turn with a new team within the next year.