NFL Odds 2019: 4 Major surprises following NFL Draft

The 2019 NFL odds and over/under lines all shifted dramatically post NFL Draft. This is not surprising, but the projected results of these four teams are a major shock.

Following the NFL Draft, new sets of over/under win totals and 2019 NFL odds were released for the upcoming football season. It may be hard to tell exactly what impact the draft will have, but it certainly means something. Some teams filled gaping holes on their roster. Others left holes unfilled. Some acquired difference-making starters. Others drafted more for the future.

We’ll definitely be making official over/under picks and focusing on divisional and championship odds as the offseason advances. But right now four major surprises jump out at us immediately after the draft. We’ve got two AFC and two NFC teams that leave us perplexed.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate 2019 NFL odds in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

AFC Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers

Todd Salem: After the tumult of the Cleveland Browns’ offseason trades, everyone was hopping on their bandwagon. After the draft, the odds seem to indicate something else. Few analysts were in love with Cleveland’s draft, while Pittsburgh was given high marks. I wouldn’t make a habit of trading up for an inside linebacker, but Devin Bush was a premier target. I like the potential of Zach Gentry in the fifth. Other than that, I wasn’t thrilled with what Pittsburgh did, but that places me in the minority.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh are now essentially on equal footing according to the oddsmakers. They were both given over/under win totals of 9.0 games, as well as nearly identical odds to win the AFC North. The Browns’ lower Super Bowl odds perhaps speak to their bandwagon growing, but these two are neck-and-neck, with Baltimore not far behind. This surprises me, as I expected Pittsburgh to be looking up at the up-and-coming Dawg Pound.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Todd Salem: Many publications hated what the Titans did during the draft. Others hated Houston’s haul. There seemed to be consensus positive feelings about the Jaguars though. Josh Allen was the best player available at their pick in the first round. They also nabbed an offensive tackle with a first-round grade when their second pick circled around.

And yet, the odds have Jacksonville as the longest shot in the division (tied with Tennessee) at 5-1 and over/under 8 wins. The AFC South is obviously a bunched-up division, with last place expected to hover still at .500, but I like Jacksonville at the top if the option is between that and the bottom. It looks to be a good early bet as we head toward the summer.

NFC Picks

Green Bay Packers

Dan Salem: Don’t get me wrong, I too fall for the annual trap of inflating the Packers outlook for the upcoming season. Aaron Rodgers is great and causes us to make illogical decisions, especially at this later stage of his career. Green Bay has a rookie coach and lots to improve upon if they hope to compete in the crowded NFC North. They had a nice draft, but I don’t believe the team did enough to support Rodgers on offense. The focus was defense yet again.

Green Bay now has odds nearly identical to the Chicago Bears, with an over/under of 9.0 wins and 2-1 odds to win the division. Add in 7-1 odds to win the NFC itself, and I’m not buying the hype or drinking the Kool-Aid. I can see the Packers having a winning season. That is all Rodgers. But they are head and shoulders behind Chicago and Minnesota right now and leagues behind the top of the NFC. Too many people must be betting on Green Bay because these odds make little sense to me.

San Francisco 49ers

Dan Salem: We have yet to see more than a month of games from Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers. Consider me skeptical of a complete turnaround this season. He has the potential to be very good, but San Francisco still lacks everywhere else. Nick Bosa does not suddenly make their entire defense formidable. This team has potential, but nothing close to the potential their current odds would indicate.

Again, I don’t take much issue with the over/under wins total of 8.0 for San Francisco. This is optimistic, but possible considering their division is top heavy. But the 49ers are nearly on par with Seattle across the board and have 12-1 odds to win the NFC with 4-1 odds to win the division. That is crazy talk! Los Angeles is the runaway favorite to win the NFC West, with the Seahawks a distant second. Nothing about San Francisco’s draft makes me believe they win the necessary 11 games to potentially topple the Rams. This was a major surprise.