NFL Week 3, 2019: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

Injuries aside, it’s been a crazy two weeks of NFL action. Who can you trust in NFL Week 3? These are your best picks against the spread (ATS).

Early in the season, it’s hard to know what to make of the non-Miami teams in the NFL. Half the league offers juxtaposed data to this point. Tampa Bay followed up a bad home loss with a good road win. The Bills struggled against the Jets and then handled the Giants. The Vikings and Titans dominated their Week 1 matchups and couldn’t get anything going in Week 2. Etc., etc.

We still need far more data points to know what is what. And yet, the sample keeps changing. Legendary quarterbacks are dropping out of lineups. Teams already employ inexperienced backups to save money on a position they don’t ever plan on using. And they don’t give those backups any first-team reps.

Paraphrasing what Tom Moore famously said, teams are screwed if they lose their lead dog, and there’s no reason to practice screwed. Yet here we are. The Saints, Steelers, Jaguars, perhaps Panthers, obviously Colts, arguably Jets and voluntarily Giants are figuratively screwed.

Hopefully, they practice it this week. Who can you trust in NFL Week 3? These are your best picks against the spread (ATS).

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 3 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2019 Record ATS

Dan Salem’s record ATS: 1-3
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 2-2

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Oakland Raiders +8.5 at Minnesota Vikings

I was debating between two road dogs getting more than a touchdown against NFC North opponents. The other was Denver at Green Bay. We’ve already witnessed Oakland best Denver head-to-head. That doesn’t mean a whole lot in regards to Week 3, but we’ve seen what Oakland can do against a mediocre team. I also feel much less confident in the Vikings than the Packers.

As far as this matchup, who is backing the Vikings giving 8.5 right now? Kirk Cousins is a mess. The defense is its normal self, but it’s not a unit capable of winning a ballgame by itself. In a week with a number of massive lines, 8.5 may seem tame, but it is far too high for this contest. Cousins is barely topping 8.5 completions per game right now.

Washington Redskins +5 vs. Chicago Bears

Neither of these teams has a good offense. Both arguably have a good defense. Even those nonbelievers in the Washington defense could understand the logic in picking it to keep this game close.

I find it hard to imagine the Bears beating any competent opponent by at least five right now with the way the offense is playing. The Redskins are at home and are the only home dog this week getting more than a field goal. I like that disrespect against a team that looks like it has rightly regressed from last season.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Detroit Lions +7 at Philadelphia Eagles

I’ve been unimpressed with the Eagles this season and now they are dealing with significant injuries to their receiving corps. On the flip-side is the Detroit Lions, who seem to have a lot of fight thus far. I’m not saying Detroit wins outright, but this will be another close game in which the Eagles struggle to hold a lead. I’m taking a touchdown because there’s no telling what might happen in Philadelphia.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Cleveland Browns

Another unimpressive team is the Cleveland Browns, who did not look good against an awful Jets team last week. The one big play by Odell Beckham Jr. masked the true nature of Cleveland’s struggles. Baker Mayfield was indecisive throwing the football and running for his life most of the game. The Browns’ rushing attack did not dominate either. Enter the Los Angeles Rams, with a significantly better defense and a pretty solid offense to say the least.

Cleveland will be lucky to hang with the Rams. I don’t expect much from the Browns, as they have yet to show me anything this season. Give up the field goal and back the NFC champions on the road. This game is unlikely to be close.