Our theory worked, so we’re running it back in NFL Week 6. Road teams keep winning against the spread and we have the four best picks for NFL Week 6.
Road teams continue to dominate against the spread thus far in the 2019 NFL season. Our random theory floated out last week was that Vegas lines are still giving the standard three points (or more) to home teams, yet home-field advantage isn’t as powerful as it used to be. This has proven true.
Through five weeks, there are only five teams with a losing road record ATS, and the Atlanta Falcons account for 43 percent of the total losses. Last week, we took advantage, going 3-1 on road teams, and we’re dipping back into the same well in NFL Week 6 until that course correction comes. These are your best picks against the spread. All lines come via Bovada.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 6 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019 Record ATS
Dan Salem’s record ATS: 5-5
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 5-5
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
New Orleans Saints +1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Saints have been without Drew Brees since early in Week 2. That has slipped them under the public radar. We all assumed they would simply try to keep their heads above water until his return. Instead, they’ve won three straight and are quietly one of the best teams in the NFC.
Teddy Bridgewater has not been an extraordinary Brees replacement, but the defense has made up a lot of the difference. And in this match, he faces an underachieving Jags defense on the other side. New Orleans isn’t getting its due, as evidenced by this line still favoring the home club.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Minnesota Vikings
The Eagles are about to start a heck of a stretch that will see them face six straight postseason hopefuls, with the first three contests coming on the road. This is the first of that set, where Philadelphia will certainly want to jumpstart things on the right foot. With a cakewalk final five weeks, this will make or break the Eagles’ season.
The Vikings are undefeated at home in the early going, but depending on how you value the Oakland Raiders, neither of those wins is anything of note. More importantly, the Minnesota offense has been stuffed by anyone that isn’t one of the worst defenses in the league. And Dalvin Cook will not be able to take over the game for Kirk Cousins. Philadelphia has the stingiest run defense in the NFL.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Cincinnati Bengals +11.5 at Baltimore Ravens
This is a pick against Baltimore’s defense, rather than in favor of Cincinnati. The Bengals have been looking worse and worse, but are in fact scoring points each week. The Ravens have not blown any team out other than Miami. Why are they suddenly going to defeat a division rival by two touchdowns? I’m not buying it. Keep backing the road teams and take these 11.5 points. Andy Dalton will find the end zone.
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at Cleveland Browns
Contrary to popular opinion, the Seahawks are really good and getting better each week. Cleveland is better than the team which got humiliated by San Francisco, but not by much. The Seattle defense is just as good as the 49ers, meaning they can hold Baker Mayfield and company in check. Cleveland has no offensive line to speak of.
Do you pick a playoff team, or a struggling middle of the road club who happens to be at home? We know how road teams are dominating against the spread, so I’m sticking by this trend and backing the Seahawks. Somehow they manage to remain a model of consistent winning and the reason is named Russell Wilson.