NFL Week 8, 2019: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

Are there truly sure things? Apparently so, as double-digit spreads continue to get covered week after week. NFL Week 8 will be no exception. These are your best picks against the spread (ATS).

11 of the 14 games played this last week were sizable blowouts, with one team winning by at least two scores. Of course, one of those sizable winners was San Francisco, whose nine-point victory wasn’t enough to cover an even higher line in the slop against Washington.

NFL Week 8 offers another batch of potential sizable blowouts, which has been a trend this season. Five more games this week have lines in double figures (which could add a sixth depending on what happens with Matt Ryan and the Falcons line).

According to CBS Sports, we may also see history. Minnesota’s Thursday line is bordering on becoming the largest spread ever for a Thursday game. The record was set way back in…two games ago…when the Patriots hosted the Giants and covered 16.5 points.

In fact, monstrous favorites are having a season. Those teams giving at least 15 points to an over-matched opponent are 5-1 against the spread thus far, and looking to add multiple wins to the ledger from NFL Week 8. Where does this leave us? Oddsmakers have been unable to course correct, so stay the course. These are your best picks against the spread. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 8 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2019 Record ATS

Dan Salem’s record ATS: 7-7
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 7-7

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Carolina Panthers +6 at San Francisco 49ers

I was relieved when I heard that Carolina will stick with Kyle Allen at quarterback for this game. Allen has been really steady and safe with the football. It has allowed Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers defense to win ballgames, which they are doing in droves.

The 49ers are the best team Carolina has faced since Allen took over, but it’s not like it has played a cupcake schedule. The Panthers have won in London and twice more on the road, including in Houston. Meanwhile, San Francisco has a super defense and a super shaky offense. The weather last week wasn’t the only thing that held San Francisco back.

The offense has been a mediocre unit all season. When two elite defenses face off, and neither team has a prolific offense, I’ll grab the points and the team with the best game-breaking player.

Green Bay Packers -4 at Kansas City Chiefs

Did anyone ask how many points Patrick Mahomes would be worth on a point spread? It seems like the answer is at least 7.5 and should be more. If Mahomes was going in this one, I can’t imagine a line anywhere south of KC favored by three at home. It’s probably higher even. Instead, with Matt Moore under center, we get the road Packers giving four points, and I like them to cover easily.

Moore is not a bad quarterback, but Kansas City is Mahomes. The rest of the team isn’t all that special. The defense isn’t good. The skill players seem to be unleashed with Mahomes serving them darts. Sure, Kelce and Hill are still great talents, but where else is there a game-breaking player on this roster?

It would make sense to lean on the running game against a porous Green Bay unit, but Damien Williams has been terrible when not hurt, which leaves Shady McCoy to carry the Chiefs. I haven’t even mentioned how hot the Packers are looking right now.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Two games truly stand out on the schedule this week and both involve the NFC West. Seattle is an excellent football team, despite barely holding on versus the Browns and then falling to the Ravens. You know who isn’t very good and is likely playing with a backup quarterback? Its the Falcons, who are going to seriously miss Matt Ryan if he misses time.

Atlanta wasn’t winning with Ryan, so now I’m all over the Seahawks in this game. Somehow they are only giving up three points. Its probably because they aren’t blowing teams out, but Russell Wilson versus the Falcons’ defense will certainly change this dynamic. Seattle all the way.

Los Angeles Rams -9.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Rams have been less than dominant this season, but are still a very good football team. Cincinnati is not. Los Angeles is also at home in this one, which makes giving up nearly two touchdowns a bit more palatable. I personally hate giving up points, especially near-double digits. But the Bengals are really bad and the Rams are quite good. We will be okay in this game.

Its almost as if the truly bad teams are just incapable of covering the spread this season. They are that bad. Blowouts have become common place, so make sure you’re on the right side of them this week. Los Angeles is poised to make a statement, as it sits in third place in the NFC West. They need to make a big one.