NFL Week 11, 2019: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

Despite a ton of favorites losing, we pulled out the best picks last week. With the NFL Week 11 slate equally as lopsided, you need our best picks against the spread to notch your own victories.

Well, NFL Week 10 was certainly… interesting. It isn’t fair to call out any person’s predictions in any given week. Picking NFL games is too wild. But this isn’t a person, so I think we’re in the clear! CBS’s “proven computer model” (yes, that’s really the title) had three picks it was most confident in for Week 10 action.

They were Tampa Bay -4.5, Cincinnati +10.5, and New Orleans -13.5. You can see where this is going. All three of the computer’s most confident picks lost. How did we do, you might ask?

Todd’s picks went just 0-1-1, but Dan nailed his going 2-0 for the week. The point being, even 10 weeks into the season, we still have such a small feel for who can be trusted to consistently perform.

Unfortunately, Dan does not get extra credit for pulling out a 2-0 week last week, but bravo nonetheless. With NFL Week 11 being equally as lopsided, these are your best picks against the spread. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 11 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2019 Record ATS

Dan Salem’s record ATS: 11-9
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 9-10-1

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cleveland Browns

Don’t bet on Thursday games. Definitely don’t pick road teams on Thursday. I’m not sure those axioms still hold up. Just three times all season has the road team lost by more than two points. I don’t have the extensive data on TNF records against the spread over time, but I’m no longer shying away from a selection when the spread seems so favorable.

Pittsburgh quietly has one of the best defenses in football after a slow start. With Cleveland not quietly having one of the most disappointing offenses in the game, this should be a low-scoring affair. That is, unless the Steelers defense puts a few scores up itself. It is already second in the NFL in turnovers forced.

Houston Texans +4.5 at Baltimore Ravens

I feel as though Ravens’ stock is getting too high. It is easy to see why. They have put together three consecutive amazing performances, two of which came against arguably the best teams in each respective conference. I was certainly too low on this squad to start the season, but now it is giving 4.5 points to a lock playoff team: Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans. That feels too high.

Coming off a bye, Houston should be well prepared to attempt to slow down Lamar Jackson. With the Ravens sneakily having a mediocre defense at best, it will be hard to put the Texans away. And these teams line up pretty well. Both teams are top five in offense, below average on defense, within one of each other in turnover differential. I understand the Baltimore love, but it’s just a tad too much this week.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Carolina Panthers

Matt Ryan‘s return completely sparked the Falcons last week, as they handled New Orleans for their second victory. I’m betting that performance was no fluke, and Atlanta more closely resembles an 8-8 team, rather than the one win squad we had seen thus far. I also love getting points on the road once again.

Carolina played Green Bay close last week, but have not been dominating anyone. Six points are too many to pass up, as the Falcons continue to play better football. Ryan can keep this game close and even win it for Atlanta. These teams are closer than their records would indicate.

New England Patriots -3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Patriots simply do not lose after their bye week, like ever. New England is still one of the best teams in the NFL, with the league’s best defense. Their offense has waned in recent weeks, but the bye week changes all of this. I’m also not particularly high on Philadelphia.

The Eagles have played pretty good football, but have not faced a defense like New England’s just yet. I expect the Patriots to shut down Philly and quite possibly embarrass them. Even if this is more of a shoot out, I’m comfortable giving up 3.5 points. Tom Brady gets his team at least a seven-point victory.