NFL Week 14, 2019: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

You can’t simply back winning teams, because even the very best of the NFL is .500 against the spread. We’ve pulled out the best of NFL Week 14, your best picks against the spread.

The Baltimore Ravens are the peak of the NFL this season. They don’t stand alone in terms of best record, but they have the top point differential in the league and have felt like the best team for a few weeks running now.

The Miami Dolphins are the opposite. They are no longer the laughing stock of the league, but the Dolphins still have, far and away, the worst point differential in the sport. They are not currently favorites to earn the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but they remain in the discussion.

We bring these obvious points up to say that Baltimore and Miami have identical 6-6 records against the spread this year. Based on differential, the very best and very worst in the league are identical when it comes to gambling. As always, the house is undefeated. Where does this leave us in NFL Week 14? These are your best picks against the spread. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 14 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2019 Record ATS

Dan Salem’s record ATS: 15-11
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 12-13-1

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Seattle Seahawks -1 at Los Angeles Rams

Seattle is in the midst of a five-game winning streak, the longest in the NFC. While the Hawks are perfectly capable at home, on the road is where they have really shined this year. The Seahawks are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS on the road. Don’t be discouraged by the low point differential. A win is a win (when the spread is one point!).

With the way the Rams have struggled this year, specifically at home, this line feels reminiscent of Week 12’s Seattle line. The Seahawks ended up as slight underdogs at Philadelphia and promptly held the Eagles to nine total points.

Philadelphia Eagles -8 vs. New York Giants

While Seattle is the hottest team in the conference, the Giants are the coldest in the entire league. After Cincinnati’s win, New York’s eight-game losing streak is king. They are lined up to pick second overall in the 2020 NFL Draft and haven’t challenged anyone for more than a couple quarters in most games.

New York poses an interesting opponent for Philadelphia since the Eagles have been struggling to beat anyone. They have a reasonably high ceiling yet one of the lowest floors for anyone still challenging for a playoff spot. It seems silly to say this after seeing them lose to Miami just last week, but a playoff contender should easily cover eight against New York.

Call this a gut pick in favor of Philly. I think this is the week the offense gets out of the cellar. New York has a terrible defense, a coach on the hot seat, a quarterback (be it Eli Manning or Daniel Jones) giving the ball to the opposition like he’s northeast Jameis Winston, and Philadelphia is familiar with this divisional foe. It all aligns.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Detroit Lions +13 at Minnesota Vikings

Despite their losing record, the Lions have quietly been competitive in all but one game this season. Their only major loss came at the hands of the Vikings, a 12-point defeat. Detroit loses a ton of close football games and has stayed competitive even without Matthew Stafford under center.

The Lions are getting 13 points this week and have yet to lose by more than 12 points. Sure, they are on the road against a likely playoff team. But the stats say Detroit keeps it close and doesn’t lose by more than ten. I’m taking double digits in this one.

Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 at Cleveland Browns

It’s tough for me to back two losing teams playing on the road, but this game features two losing teams facing off in a tough divisional matchup. Cincinnati looked competent last week, winning their first game of the season. Andy Dalton‘s return provided a major offensive spark and the defensive line shredded New York’s poor offensive line. Does anyone truly believe in the Browns right now?

Cleveland also has a poor offensive line and a suspect defense. While it’s true that they are the better team, it’s also true that they have been grossly inconsistent all season. The Bengals defense likely gets to Baker Mayfield and the team will improve upon Dalton’s performance offensively. Getting over a touchdown is perfect, as Cincinnati continues to play better football.