NFL Week 16, 2019: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

Road teams have our eye in NFL Week 16 as our best picks against the spread nearly all playoff teams. Those with January games in sight are catching fire. Pick accordingly.

With the college football season in the rearview mirror, the NFL abandons Thursday night and moves three games to Saturday in NFL Week 16. The Saturday games contain six pretty good teams, five playoff hopefuls, three who have already clinched, an over/under in the 50s, another in the 30s and a home dog who has won four games in a row for good measure.

It feels like we’re mostly safe this season, but NFL Week 16 also occasionally poses problems in finding teams that are still trying their hardest. No one has a playoff bye wrapped up quite yet, so we should be okay, but it always gives us pause getting this close to the end.

There’s nothing worse than picking a team who, by kickoff, decides it’s packing it in and waiting for January. The Baltimore Ravens perhaps? That’s why our four road picks stand out. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 16. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 16 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2019 Record ATS

Dan Salem’s record ATS: 16-13-1
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 13-16-1

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Buffalo Bills +6.5 at New England Patriots

The last time these two teams met came in Week 4. Buffalo was the upstart who no one really respected quite yet. New England was the behemoth rolling fools. It finished as a six-point game. Since then, the Bills have continued to succeed, have clinched a playoff spot, and are actually challenging NE for the AFC East title.

Meanwhile, the Patriots kept winning but unveiled massive holes in their protection, not the least of which is a highly suspect offense. Over the last six games, the only team New England beat by more than one score was the 1-13 Cincinnati Bengals. In a matchup of elite defenses, take the team getting a touchdown.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 at Atlanta Falcons

And in a matchup of putrid defenses, take the team getting more than a touchdown! Atlanta is coming off arguably its best performance of the season: a road win at San Francisco. But we know the 29-22 win isn’t everything it appears. The Falcons scored the final 12 points of the game in literally the last two seconds. They still went down and scored the game-winner against SF, but the final score is obviously misleading.

The Jaguars are coming off a win themselves and may be getting back on track after reinserting Gardner Minshew into the starting lineup. Jacksonville hasn’t been as good in Minshew’s second run as starting QB, but the running game and defense have also fallen apart. I don’t love Jacksonville right now, but the Falcons are being overvalued after their quality win. This is a different team following the bye, but Atlanta is still just 1-3 against the spread as a favorite.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Kansas City Chiefs -5 at Chicago Bears

No time like the present to hone in on the teams prepping for the playoffs and playing their best football. Kansas City is rolling and just dispatched of a very good Denver defense with ease. That took place in the snow no less. Chicago has very little left to play for, so I’m fully behind the Chiefs in this AFC/NFC matchup. Five points is easy to give up.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Tennessee Titans

Another team currently rolling is New Orleans, who is quietly having one of the best seasons in the NFL. Tennessee desperately needs this game, but the Titans just fell on their faces versus division rival Houston. Nothing makes me think their previously stout defense can slow down Drew Brees and company.

I’ve picked two road favorites playing a team from the opposite conference this week. Both teams, including New Orleans, are gaining steam as they head into the playoffs. I love what the Saints are doing week in and week out. A field goal is easy for me to give up against an up and down Titans team. Playoff favorites are my favorite picks this week.