Road teams dominated the regular season against the spread, but that doesn’t make them all our best picks for the Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs.
Dan Salem finished the regular season with a flurry, bringing his season record to a robust 59 percent correct picks. That is a rate on which to build a stockpile. Todd Salem’s regular season was much more pedestrian/disappointing. Last year, he followed up a solid regular season with a great postseason. Let’s see if Todd can do the latter again in 2019/2020 to salvage the year.
In the real world, the best team against the spread was the New Orleans Saints. Surprisingly, the Los Angeles Rams (along with Kansas City) were right there as well. A disappointing record straight up that left Los Angeles out of the postseason picture didn’t carry over to the wagering side of things. Chicago carried up the rear to no one’s surprise. The Bears were disappointing following last year’s success and never righted the ship.
Checking back in on our biggest trend of the year, road teams absolutely dominated ATS this season. It started early and never ended. Road teams finished a whopping 33 games over .500! With some wildcard teams feeling more consistent than division champions, we’ll see if the trend continues at all in the 2020 NFL Playoffs.
Do the road teams have our eye during Wildcard Weekend? These are your best picks against the spread for the NFL Playoffs. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the 2020 NFL Playoffs in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019 Regular Season Record ATS
Dan Salem’s record ATS: 20-13-1
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 14-19-1
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks won so many tight games this season, a less kind person could deem their playoff run fluky or lucky. They enter with a point differential more representative of an 8-8 team than an 11-5 team. Seattle is also banged up on both sides, has to travel on the road to face a hot Philly team, and is a road favorite to boot.
I haven’t liked much of what I’ve seen from Philadelphia this season (and no one’s offense got more banged up than theirs), but the stars may be aligning — at least for one round.
New England Patriots -4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
After ranting about the success of road teams this year, I’m taking two home teams in round one. While the Philly pick is backed by trends and information, this New England pick is far less nuanced. I’m giving the Patriots one benefit-of-the-doubt playoff win. This infrastructure can surely beat Tennessee at home in the playoffs. The line definitely represents suckers like me who are backing the name only, but to be honest, it still seems like the better side of the wager.
If I need more information to actually feel confident about my selection, the Patriots did wrap up the season as the No. 1 defense in all of football; so there’s that.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Buffalo Bills +3 at Houston Texans
I’m sticking with the road teams and shying away from the two games which feel too close to call. Buffalo has been playing great and nearly won with its backups in Week 17. Houston got pushed off the field, which doesn’t bode well for their momentum.
I like the Bills straight up, because of their defense and running game. Unlike the Texans who gave up a lot of points to multiple opponents this season, Buffalo has been consistently stingy. A field goal is too much to pass up in this game.
Minnesota Vikings +8 at New Orleans Saints
These two teams are much more evenly matched than the line would indicate. Its because New Orleans is a fan favorite at home, while the Vikings looked less than stellar to end the season. Minnesota still has a great defense and a pretty good offense. The Saints defense has been sneaky average this year, so it’s hard to imagine either team running away with things.
When you envision a close game, always take the points. Minnesota gets over a touchdown, so don’t pass it up. Their defense can easily slow down Drew Brees enough to get you the win against the spread. As for the two games I passed on, they both feel risky. It’s a toss-up to me regarding who’s actually the better team right now in both instances. That’s why I had to stay away with money on the line.