One of us is a genius. The other is finally seeing the light. As the 2020 NFL Playoffs roll on, these are your best picks against the spread for the Divisional Round.
The Wild Card Round to kick off the 2020 NFL Playoffs had everything. There were four one-score games (technically), three straight-up road wins, two overtime games, one potential end to a dynasty and a few questionable calls for good measure.
The way the Houston Texans put it on Buffalo in the second half was impressive, but we don’t love the fact that the Texans fell behind Josh Allen and company 16-0 in the first place. You have to be impressed with both Tennessee’s and Seattle’s defensive performances, but in actuality, what defenses would not be able to stop the current New England offense and what is left of the Philadelphia attack?
After Round 1, the only team that really impressed in terms of who they beat and how they did it was the Minnesota Vikings. Yet Minnesota lost the fourth quarter 10-0 and, if you ask Saints fans, the Vikings only won because of a missed pass interference call, which sounds familiar.
Maybe that means, after a road-heavy first round, we’re ready for favorites to start taking over. Maybe. These are your best picks against the spread for the 2020 NFL Playoffs. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the 2020 NFL Playoffs in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019/2020 Record ATS:
The best of us (Dan Salem): 21-13-2
Gathering data for next year (Todd Salem): 14-21-1
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
I avoided Minnesota versus New Orleans in round one because I liked both teams. New Orleans felt like a superior team to Green Bay even though one had to play in the opening round, and the other received a bye. Likewise, Minnesota felt a tad underrated heading into the playoffs. I will now jump on the Vikings as they apparently continue to be underrated.
San Francisco has been a touchdown or more favorite seven times prior to this contest. It failed to cover the spread all seven of those times this season. Minnesota doesn’t have too much experience as a considerable underdog. Only twice was it given even five points in a game. Those two times came in Week 17 when the Vikings rested their starters and still managed to cover, and last week.
Houston Texans +9.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
This is where things get uncomfortable. I don’t think the Texans will win, and I hate to pick an underdog to cover but lose. When grabbing an underdog, you still want to feel like it can win outright. Even still, this line feels way too high.
Kansas City had the much better defense during the regular season. But Houston just flummoxed and baffled Josh Allen into some of the weirdest postseason decisions we saw last round. The group also has JJ Watt back, and he made an immediate impact against Buffalo. This isn’t the unit that ranked 26th in DVOA; it’s better.
KC also has the better offense, but no one looks better than Deshaun Watson when the Texans get rolling. I don’t know if I’ll have to rely on a backdoor cover for this victory, but the value is here getting almost double figures.
Dan Salem:
Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Tennessee Titans
I’m flipping the script for the Divisional Round because the disparity between our four teams that received a first-round bye and our Wild Card teams is enormous this season. It’s time to back the home favorites, especially the Baltimore Ravens. The lines were too high for me to pick either home team you chose against, but Baltimore has been the hottest and most dominant team in the league since October.
While the Titans have looked very good, they will be up against a very different opponent this week. If Tom Brady is aging gracefully, then Lamar Jackson is a literal superhero minus the cape. The Ravens running game is better and their defense is playing better. All signs point to a two-touchdown victory for Baltimore.
Green Bay Packers -4 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle looked pretty good in Philadelphia but still couldn’t pull away from the Eagles even after Carson Wentz went out with a concussion. The Packers are hungry and have much better offensive weapons. One might question if their defense can stop Russell Wilson, but it’s not like he decimated Philadelphia. Green Bay simply needs to slow him down and disrupt his rhythm. Then let Aaron Rodgers remind us why he’s an all-time great.
If this line was much higher, I may shy away. The Seahawks have been in way too many close games this season. But giving up four points is no big deal, as the Packers win by a touchdown. They are at home with a huge chip on their shoulder. Green Bay missed the playoffs last year, so they have some demons to avenge.