The line for Super Bowl 54 is tiny and the over/under is super high, so what are your best picks against the spread? We lay down our best picks for the game and the over/under, debate style.
We have reached the zenith of the NFL season. Just one game remains. The ultimate Super Bowl 54 prop picks are coming later in the week. Before that, we must address the standard picks and finish out our 2019-20 season against the spread.
Which team is the best pick to win against the spread? Do you take the over or under for Super Bowl 54? We answer both questions so everyone wins money. These are your best picks against the spread for Super Bowl 54. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate Super Bowl 54 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019/2020 Record ATS:
The best of us (Dan Salem): 23-15-2
Gathering data for next year (Todd Salem): 15-24-1
We have had two weeks to think about the matchup between Kansas City and San Francisco. The flash take is that the Chiefs offense and 49ers defense are the premiere units in the league. Whichever of those groups has the best day will win the league championship.
It is worth noting, though, that the numbers don’t really back this up. Or, at least, it isn’t as obvious that those two groups are the end-all, be-all of the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense was certainly elite during the regular season, finishing third in DVOA. However, San Francisco was no pushover. It finished with the seventh-best offense and eighth-best passing game in the league. We think of the 49ers as a slow, pounding offense, but the metrics don’t really bear that out.
On defense, the storyline holds more to expectations. San Francisco is elite and Kansas City is just middle-of-the-road. However, the Chiefs defense was dragged down by a terrible start and an awful run defense. This unit actually ranked sixth in the entire sport in pass defense by year’s end.
When you factor in special teams, these teams are both top-five overall in the league. There is no surprise member of the Super Bowl this season, as we know. And there is little separation between the two. The line on the game is a point or a point and a half in most places.
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Kansas City Chiefs -1 vs. San Francisco 49ers
My gut tells me to back Kansas City. Granted, my gut has been terrible picking ATS this season, but the Chiefs have felt a bit underrated in my mind as everyone gravitated toward Baltimore or New England in the AFC. Backing Andy Reid in the biggest of games gives me pause, but the possibility of a late-game timing blunder should have less of an impact with a former league MVP at quarterback. And besides, Reid is famously great after byes and with long times to prepare for an opponent.
The Chiefs have covered (with one push) eight consecutive spreads heading into the title game. Make it nine.
Under 54.5 points
Both of the Chiefs’ two playoff games have gone well over on the over/under. However, the team hasn’t been pounding overs during their winning streak. Just three of their past eight games have gone over, and the Super Bowl will give the highest line of any of them.
San Francisco has consistently been given lower over/unders, as one would expect. But it too has not been hitting very many. Just four of its past eight have gone over.
It is certainly more fun to bet the over, but with two very good defenses, an extremely high line, and two coaches infamously familiar with the stage who may feel a bit cautious to start, I’ll go under 54.5.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Kansas City Chiefs -1 vs. San Francisco 49ers
It scares me to my core that we agree on this football game, namely because you’ve been wrong most of the season and we’ve disagreed most weeks. But this is the Super Bowl and while defense certainly wins championships, it does not win the Super Bowl in the way we all think.
Patrick Mahomes wins this Super Bowl and the Chiefs defense shows up big to bring things home. Teams need above-average defense to reach the championship and they need their best players to do great things in order to win the Lombardi Trophy. This means the defense shining for the victor, but a player like Mahomes usually trumps a defense’s impact. Super Bowl 54 comes down to one thing, and its an easy answer.
Which quarterback do I trust to score with 90 seconds on the clock and the game on the line? That player is Mahomes with zero debate. San Francisco has been a great story all season, but Jimmy Garoppolo will not be able to do more than Mahomes. Chiefs win.
Over 54.5 points
Do the Chiefs win in a shootout? That is the question asked by our over/under. A massive 54.5-point line implies each team scores at least three touchdowns. Kansas City winning 35 to 21 puts us just over. A 28-21 game does not cut it.
Of its 18 games this season, including the playoffs, Kansas City has scored fewer than 28 points only six times. San Francisco scored fewer than 28 points only seven times in its 18 games, including the playoffs. I’m going over 54.5 points in the Super Bowl.