San Francisco 49ers: Embrace change in 2020 offseason or risk collapse

Super Bowl losers have a poor track record the following season, so the San Francisco 49ers cannot afford to stand pat. They must embrace change this offseason to avoid becoming one and done.

The difference a year makes is unreal in the NFL. This time last year, Todd Salem wrote the following about the San Francisco 49ers: “There are stranger things than going from 4-12 to 12-4 when a roster adds what amounts to a premiere quarterback prospect and the best defensive rookie in the league, among other valuable pieces.”

It turns out Todd completely undersold the improvements pending for San Francisco in 2019. The 49ers ended up winning 13 games and making it all the way to the Super Bowl. But now things get complicated because Super Bowl losers are normally historical footnotes at best.

Entering the 2020 offseason, unlike most championship participants, the San Francisco 49ers have the ability to keep most of their roster intact. However, with that comes very few ways to make significant improvements. Somehow and someway this team must embrace change or risk collapse this season.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the San Francisco 49ers in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

On the 49ers’ offense, everyone of note other than Emmanuel Sanders remains under contract. Even if he does return, the team may look for some help at wide receiver but it will especially need to do so if he doesn’t. On defense, the secondary will be losing some pieces and that will be an area of need. Otherwise, the main offseason target will be free-agent pass rusher Arik Armstead. He is the beginning and the end of the list in-house.

As said, San Francisco doesn’t have a ton of assets at its disposal to make large improvements. The team has its first-round draft pick this season, but that pick is the team’s only one in the first four rounds of the draft. If the 49ers don’t trade back or acquire more picks, there will be a lot of pressure on that young man to become an impact player right away.

There also isn’t much room under the salary cap, which is perhaps to be expected for a deep roster that just made a long playoff run. There will have to be some movement if the team wants to re-sign Armstead to a market-level deal or extend some of its other stars.

The scenario that would gain a team cap space (large contracts with little dead money) all belong to players who I can’t imagine the team would want to cut. Instead, the front office will likely look toward jettisoning offensive skill players.

With the crazy depth this staff has found at the running back position, two names to keep an eye on are running backs Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman. As recently as last offseason, these two were expected to be the top two guys on the depth chart. Now, moving on from them would save more than $9 million and the Niners would still have Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Jeffery Wilson, as well as fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

Teams that just went 13-3 don’t normally have a ton of holes. San Francisco fits that bill. But we shouldn’t ignore the fact that it was 4-12 just a year prior. The Niners can’t get complacent and must look toward the edges for ways to improve this roster.

Dan Salem:

If history is any indication, San Francisco is in for a regression this upcoming season. Teams that shoot from worst to first rarely maintain that level of dominance. Keeping that in mind, the 49ers must inject a semblance of fresh talent to keep them in the playoffs, expanded field or not. Otherwise, San Francisco risks falling back to the pack much like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons before them.

That being said, one would expect that a team returning the vast majority of its talent can continue to play at a high level. Can we trust San Francisco’s depth at running back? I do not. That position is notoriously unpredictable and one season of success means very little going forward.

Depth is a necessity, so if the 49ers jettison McKinnon and Coleman, they better have a backup plan or two. Adding a pass-catching running back would help alleviate the need for a top-tier wide receiver. I’m personally not sold on the weapons at Jimmy Garoppolo‘s disposal, tight end aside, because they need to prove it was not a one-season fluke of success.

Speaking of Garoppolo, he too needs to improve upon his game to keep the 49ers at the top of the NFC. He was the perfect quarterback for the 2019 San Francisco 49ers. Garoppolo rarely made mistakes and never lost his team a game. He managed the offense perfectly and took over a few times, allowing the stellar defense and running game to dominate.

Unfortunately, this is not a formula one can rely upon. Great defense is one injury away from losing a step or two. So is a great running game. That means Garoppolo must be ready to kick things up a notch and take over games more often.

Just look at the Minnesota Vikings, who needed Kirk Cousins to take over this past season. He was able to do so and the Vikings excelled. Their great defense was slightly less great, meaning Cousins had to do more with the offense. Perception is everything and the pressure is now on Garoppolo to “make something” of his 49ers.

Most Super Bowl losers fail to excel the following season. San Francisco can be the exception if they are bold enough to shake things up.