Los Angeles Rams: 2020 Outlook foggy with a chance of sun

The Los Angeles Rams’s 2020 outlook isn’t hopeless but is quite murky.

The NFL moves very fast, just ask the Los Angeles Rams. It wasn’t so long ago that the Los Angeles Rams were the toast of the NFL. They had the hottest, young coach. They had the best offense and a sky-high ceiling for success. But as we know, things change quickly in this league.

The Todd Gurley contract went the way everyone except LA expected. Brandin Cooks, Dante Fowler and even Greg Zuerlein are out the door. This roster looks completely different in a number of key areas, and the team was already trending in the wrong direction.

What does this mean for the Rams’ outlook in 2020? Everything is foggy, because the NFC West division is harder than ever. But there’s a chance of sunshine for Los Angeles, because teams rarely stay on top for long and consistency wins out over time.

Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate the Los Angeles Rams in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem on the Los Angeles Rams:

At quarterback, Jared Goff is coming off a down year, and there is no alternative path to follow. The team is in his hands. Rookie Cam Akers is now the man at running back, which, who knows how that will turn out. Wide receiver is still an area of strength, but it is a worse unit than last year with Cooks out and rookie Van Jefferson in.

Instead of showing out on offense, Los Angeles is actually superior on defense right now, at least on paper. And that doesn’t necessarily speak to their elite defense; just the clear decline of the offensive unit.

Aaron Donald remains the best player on the team, though the entire defensive front is pretty good (perhaps thanks to playing next to Donald). The pass rush will have to replace both Fowler and Clay Matthews. The secondary could be good, anchored by Jalen Ramsey, but a lot of the big names are gone from this group. Maybe that will be beneficial.

For a few years, the Rams felt like the premiere program in the NFC. That is completely gone. The sheen around their offense is completely gone. Their clear path to the playoffs is murky, let alone contending for a championship. We have seen too often how quickly great teams can fall and how fast unknown teams can rise, but it is still rather jarring when it happens. This was a dynasty in the making. It is now a reminder that dynasties outside of New England don’t exist in this sport.

Dan Salem on the Los Angeles Rams:

It’s fairly obvious that the Los Angeles Rams have gotten worse and the competition around them has dramatically improved. Losing star players is never an instant fix and the Rams did fairly well last season considering.

In three years with McVay and Goff, Los Angeles has put up three winning seasons. If not for the dominance of San Francisco last year, we might be talking about three straight years of double-digit wins for the Rams. As it stands, they won 11, 13 and nine games, respectively, since McVay and Goff took over.

The Rams defense has maintained continuity over the past three seasons, ranking 11th, 20th and 17th in points allowed. The defense was actually worst during Los Angeles’ best season. Go figure. Offense is what you noted and it stands as the main hurdle towards a playoff return. The Rams’ offense ranked first, second and 11th in points per game. That right there is the difference between 11+ wins and only nine victories.

With Gurley and Cooks now gone, where will the points come from? Perhaps the answer is not so elusive, as Cooper Kupp was the teams leading receiver in two of the three seasons in question. The answer is also a bit ambiguous, because it lies in the turnover margin.

Los Angeles needs to improve its turnover ratio, which dropped all the way to 15th in the league last season. During those two more successful seasons the Rams ranked ninth and fourth in Takeaway/Giveaway ratio.

Diving into team rankings feels cumbersome and a bit stat heavy for football, yet it’s where sports now live. Los Angeles must improve its turnover margin and score more points. By turning the ball over less and getting a few more takeaways, their points per game will inevitably go up.

If they needed to focus on one area this offseason, it’s giveaways and takeaways. Great coaches can dramatically improve a team’s turnover margin on both offense and defense. If the Rams retake the NFC West this season, or even the NFC, it will be because McVay and his staff fixed this one thing.