3 NFL Playoff teams from last year that will miss the postseason in 2020

Which NFL playoff teams from 2019 will miss out on the postseason in 2020?

The undertaking to determine which NFL playoff teams from last year will be excluded from the dance in 2020 is daunting for one particular reason. This offseason, the NFL opted to add two extra playoff teams into the hopper. Starting in January, 14 teams will make the postseason (or 44 percent of all teams).

The NFL previously allowed 12 teams into the playoffs and it had been that way for nearly 30 years. But not anymore. The field as been expanded, so a list that seeks to identify the teams that are subtracted is a tad more tricky.

The teams detailed in the proceeding pages are not selected entirely by the author’s opinion or eye-test. These three squads have been identified as regression candidates based on point differential totals from 2019. That is, teams that tended to play in close games and squeak by in victories are more likely to take a step backward. Along those same lines, teams that got defeated mightily when they lost are probably wiser candidates to regress than teams that won by large margins last season.

For example, take a look at the 2018 Dallas Cowboys. The Jason Garrett-led unit finished the 2018 campaign with a win-loss record of 10-6. In that season, the Cowboys outscored opponents by a total of 15 points–in 16 games. That’s less than one point per game. Low and behold the following year, Dallas finished 8-8, fired the aforementioned Jason Garrett, and remain skittish about extending their franchise quarterback Dak Prescott.

The following three teams are not “guarantees” to miss the postseason in 2020. But they are the most likely candidates from the 2019 playoffs to observe the playoffs from afar this coming January.

Note: All stats are via Pro Football Reference.