Las Vegas Raiders: Derek Carr driving push for playoffs

Derek Carr is playing arguably the best football of his career for the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Las Vegas Raiders weren’t a popular pick to make the playoffs in the 2020 NFL season but, if they were going to get into the postseason, the consensus was that second-year running back Josh Jacobs and a young defense taking a step forward would guide the way. All quarterback Derek Carr would have to do is simply be a mistake-free game-manager.

Entering Week 10, the Raiders are indeed in the playoff mix. If the season ended today, they would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC with a 5-3 record. But the narrative about this team has changed. Rather than being the guy who Las Vegas can’t afford to mess this up, Carr has been the guiding force to the team’s success to this point.

While Jacobs has struggled as an efficient runner, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the year and while the Raiders defense ranks 24th in points allowed per game, Carr has taken a step forward as a passer. His numbers aren’t overly gaudy but are solid, completing 69.8 percent of his passes for 2,002 yards with 16 touchdowns.

However, the progression and importance of Carr go beyond just the counting stats. A quarterback who has been maligned throughout his career for being a check-down artist has quietly started to shed that label a bit, which has made the offense that much more potent. As such, the Raiders are simply a more dangerous team.

The Las Vegas Raiders playoff hopes rest firmly on Derek Carr’s shoulders.

Labeling Derek Carr as a check-down enthusiast was not unfair. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Carr was next-to-last among qualifying quarterbacks in Average Intended Air Yards (measuring the average length of each passing attempt in the air regardless of completion) at 6.3. The previous year, he was third-worst in the same metric at 6.7.

While Carr isn’t at the top of the league by any stretch, he’s improved dramatically in that aspect this season. His Average Intended Air Yards has improved from 6.3 last year to 7.7 this season. He’s not longer one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in terms of taking bigger shots down the field, even to the intermediate parts and it’s shown.

This is undoubtedly by design. Head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock used the 2020 offseason trying to get Carr and the Raiders offense more viable downfield weapons. First-round pick Henry Ruggs III is the most obvious of these but free-agent signing Nelson Agholor has been pivotal in this.

In the modern NFL, the analytics state simply that the passing game is far more valuable than the run. That, however, is less true when the quarterback isn’t looking to move the ball down the field. Therein was the issue with Carr prior to the 2020 season. He simply wasn’t making the passing game as valuable as it could be.

Now with the weapons in Las Vegas, that’s changing before our eyes and the results speak for themselves. When the Raiders beat the rival Chiefs in Week 5, Jacobs had two touchdowns, sure. But it was a prolific performance from Carr — 22-of-31, 347 yards, three touchdowns, one pick — that allowed the team to compete with the defending Super Bowl champs.

Are the Las Vegas Raiders a Super Bowl contender in their own right at this point? Most likely not. The offense isn’t quite prolific enough to negate their porous defense. Having said that, the progression of Derek Carr as the offense evolves does raise the ceiling of this team. More importantly, it may also quiet the fervent questions about whether or not he’s the future at quarterback in Sin City en route to a playoff berth this season.