How the Green Bay Packers turned into the best offense in the NFL

The Green Bay Packers have quickly turned their offense into one of the NFL’s best.

From 2006-18, Mike McCarthy was the head coach of the Green Bay Packers. The Packers had great moments under McCarthy, most notably during the 2010 season where they won the Super Bowl and finishing 15-1 the following year.

The relationship between McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers, however, started to fray as the years went on, which affected the Packers offense. By the time McCarthy’s final year rolled around in 2018, the Packers offense fell out of the top 10 in EPA (Expected Points Added), which measures the value of plays using points.

Many names were thrown around as to who could take the Packers head coaching job with McCarthy gone. The Packers ended up surprising many people as they signed then-Tennesee Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur.

The Packers finished with a 13-3 record in LaFleur’s first year but their record did not tell the whole story. The Packers finished with a point differential of 63 while their NFC North rival, the Minnesota Vikings, finished with a point differential of 104 and a 10-6 record. Green Bay finished with the seventh-best EPA on offense and the 11th worst EPA allowed on defense, showing that, while the team was good, it was not as good as their record.

The main thing that needed to change after McCarthy departed was the offense. The Packers had and have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL with Rodgers, one of the best receivers with Davante Adams and an outstanding offensive line. Yet their offense was not as great as it should have been.

But now the Green Bay Packers offense has come alive in LaFleur’s second season.

Green Bay Packers offense: What the numbers say

This year’s Packers have torched almost every defense they have battled. Every aspect of the Packers offense has been great in the 2020 NFL season as the team ranks second in EPA per play with the Chiefs being the only team who are ranked ahead of them.

Rodgers had not played like superstar quarterback of old prior to this campaign. In 2019, Rodgers ranked 12th in EPA per play and had a Pro Football Focus (subscription required) grade of 81.4, which was good but certainly not great. 2020 is a whole new year for Rodgers as he now ranks second in EPA per play and has a PFF grade of 93.5

Before LaFleur joined the Packers, he spent time with the Titans but he also spent time in Washington as a quarterbacks coach when Mike Shanahan was the head coach of the team.

Being that LaFleur spent time with one of the coaches who helped dominate with the zone running scheme, it’s fair to say that even though he was a quarterbacks coach, many expected LaFleur to bring over a solid running game. And so far, that has been true. Green Bay currently ranks 12th in Rushing EPA.

Green Bay Packers offense: What the film shows

One of Green Bays’ weaknesses heading into this season was their lack of weapons outside of Davante Adams. One way the Packers have been able to mitigate this problem has been through using bunch sets and stack sets. Bunch sets are a great way to free up players, create confusion in the defense and to mitigate press coverage.

In the linked video, you can see the Packers are using a bunch set to the right side of their offense. Darrius Shepherd is running a corner route and releases to his outside; while he is doing this, Adams is running to the flat with nobody near him.

The reason nobody was near him was that Jimmy Ward had to go around Darius Shepard and also because Ward was forced to play off the line of scrimmage. This play was not Ward’s fault; this is just a great offensive play design by the Packers staff.

Another instance of the Packers using a bunch set to their advantage was against the Houston Texans in Week 7.

Instead of creating an opportunity underneath, they instead created an opportunity down the field. Robert Tonyan and Adams attacked down the field with Tonyan down the sideline and Adams in the middle of the field.

The opportunity is created when Adams attacks the middle of the field because the safety drops down to cover him and keep his eyes on him. Meanwhile, Hargreaves was expecting help from the safety overtop with Tonyan, but with no help from the safety, Rodgers was able to hit Tonyan for 31 yards.

One other way the Packers have helped create opportunities for their receivers has been through pre-snap motion.

On another play, the Packers used motion and create an opportunity for their receiver in two different ways. The first is through the pre-snap motion itself. Adams motions over from the right side of the ball to the left side and gets an easy uncontested catch because the 49ers only have one cornerback on the left side and no linebacker recognizes Adams motioning over.

The other way the Packers created an opportunity was with Shepherd. He’s lined up to the left as the outside receiver and, right when the ball is snapped, he sprints up to the cornerback and blocks him, which nearly allowed Adams to score a touchdown. Thankfully for the Packers, they scored a touchdown on the next play.

Green Bay Packers offense: Where the unit has struggled

The Packer have leaned into some analytical aspects with the heavy usage of pre-snap motion and bunch sets but one place they could learn to use some more analytical ideas is in their running game and decisions they make with it.

Green Bay has one of the best EPA per dropback on early downs as they currently rank second only behind the Dolphins. The problem with this is that they don’t do it nearly as often as they should. Green Bay ranks 10th in early down pass rate as they are behind the likes of the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers.

The Packers offense has also been exposed by other teams. In Week 6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers handed Green Bay their first loss as they blitzed the Packers heavily and disguised coverages on the back-end to confuse Rodgers for an extra second.

The future of the Green Bay Packers offense

Green Bays’ offense is one of the best in the NFL but it still has room to grow this year and for the future. Green Bay has been brutalized by injuries this season as they have lost the likes of Allen Lazard, David Bakhtiari and Aaron Jones for various lengths of time. Jones and Bakhtiari have returned recently but are not 100 percent healthy yet.

While this year’s offense will improve slightly as the team gets healthy, the future of this offense may hinge on the 2021 NFL Draft. The Packers biggest weakness this year has been their receiver group. Green Bays’ receivers are heavily reliant on LaFleur’s scheme getting them open. But if the Packers draft well this come April, they may be able to take this offense to a whole new level — which is saying something given the level they’re currently at.

Note: EPA and pass rate statistics via RBSDM.com.