NFL Week 11 picks against the spread: 5 Best bets this week

NFL picks against the spread in Week 11 with the five best bets this week.

Nothing about the 2020 NFL season has been normal, whether that’s been COVID-19 cancellations and absences, a seemingly inordinate amount of early-season bad-weather games, or the inconsistency and unpredictability of a number of teams. Yet, we must wage forward making NFL picks against the spread because, after all, where’s the fun in not doing that?

In previous years, I’ve looked to make NFL picks against the spread for every game in every week of the season. However, for those looking for sound advice, that can often be a bit misleading. So instead of that, we’re paring it down and highlighting the best bets of this week, which is obviously Week 11 at this point.

So with some crucial matchup with playoff implications in play, let’s take a look at the five best bets in our NFL picks against the spread for Week 11. Note: All odds are courtesy of The Action Network.

5 best bets for NFL picks against the spread in Week 11

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Jaguars hadn’t covered +13.5 last week against the Green Bay Packers and also weren’t at home, you have to imagine that this would be much closer to a two-touchdown spread. So the fact that the undefeated Steelers are only 10-point favorites feels like a tremendous opportunity to attack some value.

Pittsburgh still doesn’t totally look the part of a 9-0 team at times but don’t mistake that for them not being a very good football team. More importantly, this is a high-motored defense that consistently attacks. T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree and the defense should make life hard for young Jake Luton and give the Steelers plenty of wiggle room to attack a bad defense and cover.

4. Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Denver Broncos

There is doubt as to whether or not Broncos quarterback Drew Lock even suits up for this game as he deals with injury. But regardless of who’s under center, the Denver offense has been a wreck as of late. Subsequently, this matchup against a Dolphins defense performing with the elite units in the league right now is none too kind to them.

If there’s any trepidation with this pick, it’s that Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense haven’t had to do all that much in recent weeks. However, they have looked quite solid and the Denver defense isn’t scaring anyone right now. Red-hot Miami should stay that way, even in the chilly air of the Mile High City.

3. Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

This line simply feels like an overreaction to the results of last week and not one indicative of the overall body of work for the Packers and Colts this season. Green Bay only beat Jacksonville by four points while Indianapolis went on the road and lambasted rival Tennessee. But both games were flukey, with the Pack dealing with bad weather and Indy benefitting from some splash special teams plays.

There’s undoubtedly some concern about Green Bay’s run defense in this game but Aaron Rodgers and the offense are humming and, despite the quality of the Colts defense, they should have consistent success. Given that Indianapolis has been anything but consistent on offense, taking the Packers as underdogs feels like an easy value play.

2. Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Forgive me if I’m missing something but what about this matchup makes you think this line should be sitting at -3? The Eagles are coming off of a loss to the Giants and, while you don’t want to overreact to last week, that’s actually the state of Philadelphia right now. Moreover, the Browns have accrued a 6-3 record and continue to claw their way to wins.

We know Cleveland wants to run the ball first, especially with Nick Chubb back. Coincidentally, the Eagles rank 26th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. The Browns shouldn’t have to divert from their gameplan and should control this game at home from start to finish on Sunday.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

One of the most shocking results through the first 10 weeks of the 2020 season was the Raiders upending the Chiefs earlier in the year. That’s not to say that Las Vegas isn’t a quality team because they are. However, most other games have indicated that Kansas City is simply a cut above their division rivals.

For me, this is a narrative play. The Chiefs are clearly motivated by their lone loss of the year coming to the Raiders and will be out for blood. And with the potency of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense, it’s hard to think that they won’t come out and simply prove a point with a dominant victory.