DraftKings NFL picks, Week 12: Best DFS fantasy football values
By Drew DeLuca
Our picks for the best DraftKings values on the Week 12 NFL main slate
As the month of December approaches, more and more season-long fantasy league managers are seeing their championship dreams dashed by injuries, bad luck, or both. We’re here for those who are ready to start turning their attention to DraftKings DFS fantasy football.
Every week, we offer a breakdown of the DraftKings NFL main slate, featuring all Sunday afternoon games (1 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET). We highlight the best values at every pricing tier, and offer our picks for the best buys and bargains at each position — and we’ll continue to do so in Week 12.
As usual, we start with the quarterbacks: Deshaun Watson’s impressive Thanksgiving performance is in the books, and DFS enthusiasts likewise won’t be able to start Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or even Carson Wentz. Despite great matchups on paper, all three are playing in prime time this week, so they’re absent from the DraftKings main slate.
Due to a second COVID-related postponement in a matter of days, Ben Roethlisberger and Lamar Jackson won’t face off until Tuesday and are therefore no longer options on the Sunday main slate. We sift through the remaining signal-callers to identify the best anchors to build a lineup around.
DraftKings Values for Week 12: Quarterbacks
The New York Jets defense has allowed 29.87 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, over 6.0 points more than any other team in the NFL. However, we view Tua Tagovailoa ($5,900) as too big of a gamble with so many safer and better options on the slate.
Premium Tier ($7,000 and up): Kyler Murray (ARI at NE, $8,200) and Patrick Mahomes (KC at TB, $8,000) are as good as it gets at any position. Their price tags are high, but value plays at other positions allow the steep expenditure on either MVP-caliber quarterback to be a wise proposition, especially given their attractive matchups: the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 22nd and 29th, respectively, in points allowed to opposing fantasy quarterbacks over the past four weeks.
A pair of young quarterbacks who have exceeded expectations in 2020 come at a comparative discount, however: Josh Allen (BUF vs LAC, $7,600) and Justin Herbert (LAC at BUF, $7,200) face off this week in what promises to be a high-scoring affair. We’re high on Allen, but we’d roll with Herbert and spend the $400 savings elsewhere in our lineup.
Mid-Tier Values ($6,000 to $6,900): Taysom Hill ($6,200) isn’t the bargain that he was last week when his price tag was $1,400 lighter. We prefer Cam Newton (NE vs. ARI, $6,400) or Jared Goff (LAR vs. SF, $6,000), who face defenses that rank in the bottom five in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks.
Kirk Cousins ($6,100) falls into the same bucket with a likewise juicy matchup, but we’re concerned by the absence of Adam Thielen (COVID-19) and the likelihood of a run-heavy gameplan. Cousins has quietly posted very solid efficiency numbers, but we prefer the higher floor of Newton and the higher ceiling of Goff.
Value Tier ($5,000 to $5,900): Philadelphia native and Boston College product Matt Ryan (ATL vs. LV $5,900) should feel disrespected by this price. Even with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley at less than 100 percent and Todd Gurley listed as “out,” the Falcons are more than capable of piling up points on a suspect Las Vegas Raiders defense.
Best Buy: With 19 touchdown passes to only three interceptions thus far, Derek Carr (LV at ATL, $5,700) also seems to be priced a bit too low. Carr threw multiple touchdown passes for the seventh time in ten games, a feat he’s nearly certain to duplicate against a porous Atlanta Falcons pass defense.
Bargain Bin: With 20 or more rushing yards in seven of his last eight contests, and five games with over 40 yards on the ground, Daniel Jones (NYG at CIN, $5,500) offers a higher rushing floor than most. The only quarterbacks who have run for more yards so far this year are Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, a welcoming statistic for DraftKings managers looking to simultaneously take advantage of a Cincinnati Bengals pass defense that’s pedestrian at best.