DraftKings NFL picks, Week 12: Best DFS fantasy football values
By Drew DeLuca
DraftKings Values for Week 12: Running Backs
Premium Tier ($7,000 and up): Dalvin Cook (MIN vs. CAR, $9,500) is extremely expensive, but the price tag reflects a player whose only “off-day” in the past four weeks was a four catch, 116 total yard outing against a Chicago Bears defense that ranks among the league’s ten best in keeping opposing running backs in check; in his three other games over that span, the Minnesota Vikings workhorse averaged — yes, averaged — 40.93 fantasy points per game in DraftKings. This week, Cook will grill a Carolina Panthers unit that is among the league’s worst.
DraftKings enthusiasts are hoping to see Sean Payton focus his offense around Alvin Kamara (NO at DEN, $8,200) this week, not Taysom Hill. the Denver Broncos rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last four weeks, making Kamara an incredibly attractive start.
Meanwhile, Derrick Henry (TEN at IND, $7,200) draws a depleted Indianapolis Colts defense that’s missing its best run-stopper, among other key pieces. Suffice it to say, the matchup against one of this season’s five best run defenses looks much tougher on paper than it will be in person.
Speaking of paper matchups, we prefer Nick Chubb (CLE at JAX, $7,100) to Josh Jacobs (LV at ATL, $7,200), although we don’t like either nearly as much as the three players above. If you’re going to splurge on running backs this week, we suggest you open your wallet all the way.
Mid-Tier Values ($6,000 to $6,900): Mike Davis (CAR at MIN, $6,900) came four points shy of our 20 point prediction last week, and despite seeing his lowest target total of the season, managed to haul in both targets and pair 79 total yards with a touchdown. With Teddy Bridgewater back under center, we expect Davis to log his eighth game of the season with five or more targets.
The very fairly priced James Robinson (JAX vs. CLE, $6,300) has logged four straight games with 90 or more total yards, and should serve as the focal point of the offense against a Cleveland Browns defensive unit that has been stingy to opposing fantasy running backs this season. Given better values in other pricing tiers, Robinson is the only other back in this group worth consideration, from our perspective.
Value Tier ($5,000 to $5,900): With Jonathan Taylor (IND vs. TEN) ruled out on Saturday, we solemnly keep on scrolling. We had big things in mind this week former Wisconsin Badger and pride of Salem, NJ. Womp womp.
Instead, we turn our attention to Kareem Hunt (CLE at JAX, $5,600), who has no business in this price tier. While he was outshined by teammate Nick Chubb, he should find much more room to run against the Jacksonville Jaguars; Hunt is one week removed from a 132-yard day against the Houston Texans, and after seeing just one target last week, figures to resume a more prominent role in the passing game, as well.
The lone remaining back we like from this tier is former Clemson standout Wayne Gallman, Jr (NYG at CIN, $5,000), who draws a matchup against a middling defense and faces the likelihood of several short fields due to Brandon Allen turnovers. Gallman has seen 15 or more touches in three of the last four weeks, and has demonstrated a nose for the end zone, scoring at least once in every game during that span.
Best Buy: Deal us in for Derrick Henry, per above. Expect him to blast through the Colts defense with ease as he comes close to equaling Cook’s output at a discount of over $2,000.
Bargain Bin: Zack Moss (BUF vs. LAC, $4,800) has out-snapped Devin Singletary for three straight weeks, and has seen almost twice as many touches over the past two weeks. Neither has been especially inspiring of late, but a defense that ranks 24th in stopping opposing fantasy running backs over the last four weeks might serve as the perfect panacea.
With Jonathan Taylor out, Jordan Wilkins ($4,000) will somehow assume much of his workload despite displaying inferior talent. We don’t know how many carries to expect from Wilkins, so we feel much more confident starting Nyheim Hines (IND vs TEN, $4,600). The North Carolina State product faces a Tennessee Titans defense that ranks 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last four weeks; no team has allowed more receiving touchdowns to running backs during that span.
The three-headed monster known as the Los Angeles Rams backfield draws a beaten-down San Francisco 49ers run defense that has finished in the bottom three in points allowed to fantasy running backs since the start of Week 8. Darrell Henderson’s snap share isn’t what it once was, and Malcolm Brown continues to see less and less of the field each week.
We’re therefore not against rolling the dice on a Cam Akers (LAR vs. SF, $4,200) breakout party in GPP formats. He’s the only one of the three who is trending up in terms of playing time, and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit for the team to start feeding the rookie to see what they have in him now that he’s healthy and knows the offense.
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We’re also starting to warm to post-hype sleeper Matt Brieda (MIA at NYJ, $4,000), who’s finally healthy and stepping into an opportunity, ironically enough, created by injuries to Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed. We’d much rather opt for Brian Hill (ATL vs. LV, $4,000), who likewise takes on the lead back role in a favorable matchup because of an injury to his team’s incumbent starter.