DraftKings NFL picks, Week 13: Best DFS fantasy football values

DraftKings NFL picks for Week 13 to build a winning DFS lineup for the main slate.

Every week, we analyze the DraftKings NFL main slate (Sunday 1 PM and 4 PM EST games) and identify the best values at every pricing tier for your DFS fantasy football pleasure. We highlight our picks for the best buys and bargains at each position in Week 13, starting with the quarterback position, per usual.

On Mahomes, on Jackson, on Big Ben and Allen!

Unfortunately, none of these quarterbacks will be flying high in DraftKings lineups this week, as the signal-callers from the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills are absent from the main slate, as is Tom Brady (bye). We take a look at who’s left and make the best of the main slate that’s slimmer than usual across the board.

DraftKings Week 13 NFL picks and values: Quarterbacks

Premium Tier ($7,000 and up):This tier is usually full of players that we can’t wait to plug into our lineups. This week, we’re lukewarm on the top-priced options on the DraftKings main slate.

Russell Wilson (SEA vs. NYG, $7,700) is averaging fewer than 15 fantasy points per game and two of his last three contests. He lines up against a New York Giants defense that has been surprisingly effective against opposing fantasy quarterbacks (9.41 fppg) over the last four weeks, second best in the NFL over that span.

Meanwhile, Kyler Murray (ARI vs. LAR, $7,600) has seen his fantasy points per game total decline over each of the last four weeks. The former Heisman Trophy winner  lines up against the Los Angeles Rams, who are also stifling opposing quarterbacks by allowing just 10.21 fantasy points per game over the same span, fourth best in the league.

Deshaun Watson (HOU vs. IND, $7,500) lost All Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins this off-season, but has made magic with Will Fuller, who will unfortunately miss the remainder of the 2020 season due to a PED suspension. Watson should still be a QB1 for fantasy purposes, his ceiling drops significantly, but while we’re happy for Keke Coutee, Fuller leaves behind shoes that likely won’t be filled nearly as well by any remaining member of the Texans’ wide receiving corps.

Mid-Tier Values ($6,000 to $6,900): Our interest is limited to two quarterbacks in this grouping. The first is Aaron Rodgers (GB vs. PHI, $6,800), our prime target this week, who faces a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has allowed the third most points per game to fantasy quarterbacks over the last four games.

Justin Herbert (LAC vs. NE, $6,900) is the only other dependable option we can comfortably start with full confidence. The Oregon product has thrown for 300 yards and three of his last four games, and two or more touchdowns in seven of his last eight.

That said, we’d be remiss if we didn’t offer honorable mentions to Kirk Cousins (MIN vs. JAX, $6,400) and Taysom Hill (NO at ATL, $6,300). We fault no one who wishes to pivot to one of these likely-to-be-lesser-owned options in GPP formats.

Cousins has recorded 30 or more pass attempts and three straight games, and has both stud wide receivers back in the fold. However, he should be negatively affected by what figures to be a run-heavy positive game script against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

Hill’s a wildcard who offers a solid rushing floor, and gets a great matchup on paper, as the Atlanta Falcons have been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season. Yet, we wonder if Hill is the right rostered Saints quarterback to take advantage of this fatal flaw, especially given how well the Falcons played against a red-hot Derek Carr last week.

Value Tier ($5,000 to $5,900): This isn’t a recommendation for the faint of heart, but we don’t hate Mitchell Trubisky (CHI vs. DET,  $5,400) or Carson Wentz (PHI at GB, $5,400) this week. No matter how hot or cold he is, Trubisky lays waste to a perennially lame Lions defense:

Eagles head coach Doug Pederson is apparently allergic to his running backs (only six rushes by Miles Sanders last week), so Wentz, who trails only Kyler Murray, Cam Newton, and Josh Allen in rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in 2020 and ranks ninth in rushing yards, could end up with a decent day on the ground against a porous run defense. Worst case, Wentz will once again play from behind and rack up significant garbage time stats.

Best Buy: It’s a toss up between Rodgers and Herbert, and our quarter landed with Mr. Discount Double-Check face up. Expect the MVP candidate to edge out the Rookie of the Year front-runner by a nose in the stat sheet this week.

Bargain Bin: if you’re feeling lucky, why not throw a dollar in GPP tournaments on Mike Glennon (JAX at MIN, $4,800), who welcomes D.J. Chark back into the fold in Week 13? Glennon should once again rack up passing yards while playing from behind, and he managed to keep an undermanned Jaguars offense in the game against the (8-3) Cleveland Browns and their underrated defense last week.