DraftKings NFL picks, Week 13: Best DFS fantasy football values

DraftKings Week 13 NFL picks and values: Wide Receivers

Premium Tier ($7,000 and up): Davante Adams (GB vs. PHI, $9,000) is as steady as they come; Rodgers’ favorite target has scored at least one touchdown in six straight games while averaging 11.5 targets and 109 yards per game over that same period. After watching DK Metcalf own Darius Slay last week, we’re not holding back anyone from dropping $9,000 on Davante.

Speaking of DK Metcalf (SEA vs. NYG, $8,200), we find ourselves in the growing camp of people who say the Seattle Seahawks should feed the big man 15 times a game until an opposing defense offers a reason why they shouldn’t. The gigantic Ole Miss product put the Seahawks on his very large and muscular shoulders and carried them to an easy victory against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that otherwise played quite well.

One of these days, defenses will double and triple-team Metcalf and allow Tyler Lockett (SEA vs. NYG, $7,400) to have his way with lesser members of an opposing secondary. We wrongly predicted that would happen last week, so instead of guessing it’ll actually happen this week (it might), we’ll opt for Adam Thielen (MIN vs. JAX, $7,300) or Michael Thomas (NO at ATL, $7,000) instead.

Mid-Tier Values ($6,000 to $6,900): Rookie Justin Jefferson (MIN vs. JAX, $6,900) shined as the Minnesota Vikings’ alpha wide reciever last week while Thielen was sidelined, and he’s had his share of big games against lesser pass defenses this season. While we think he can duplicate that success this week against another weak secondary, we’re even higher on the odds of DeVante Parker (MIA vs. CIN, $6,400) doing the same: despite the quarterback carousel, Parker’s catch rate has quietly risen 9.5% over last year’s breakout season, offering evidence that 2019 was no fluke.

Cooper Kupp (LAR at ARI, $6,100) hasn’t been as consistent as he was last season before going down with injury. However, since Week 8, he’s been having boom/bust weeks like clockwork, and he’s up for yet another road matchup in a “boom” week:

• Week 8 at MIA: 11 receptions, 110 yards, 0 TD on 20 targets
• Week 10 vs. SEA: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TD on 7 targets
• Week 11 at TB: 11 receptions, 145 yards, 0 TD on 13 targets
• Week 12 vs. SF: 2 receptions, 41 yards, 0 TD on 5 targets

We don’t like playing these kinds of games, but we do like Kupp’s odds of ending an eight-game scoreless streak: the Eastern Washington product hasn’t found paydirt since Week 4.

Value Tier ($5,000 to $5,900): A few players from this tier catch our eye, starting with Kupp’s teammate, Robert Woods (LAR at ARI, $5,900). “Bobby Trees” has been far more consistent than his higher-priced teammate in terms of target volume (seven or more targets in three of his last four games) and red zone proficiency (four touchdowns since Week 4).

As mentioned above, D.J. Chark (JAX at MIN, $5,400) returns from his rib injury this week, stepping into the limelight against a Minnesota Vikings pass defense that ranks as one of the NFL’s three worst at shutting down opposing fantasy wide receivers in 2020. We like him more than Alan Lazard (GB at PHI, $5,000) a player who returned from injury last week and hopes to return to form against an Eagles secondary that will be preoccupied with shutting down teammate Davante Adams.

Best Buy: No matter who starts and ends under center, the sun will rise and set over DeVante Parker as the WR1 in Miami. Parker has seen his target volume increase over the past three weeks, averaging 10.0 per game over that span; he should chew up and spit out the Bengals’ secondary with little to no problem.

Bargain Bin: There are a large number of wide receivers priced under $5,000 who we wouldn’t mind plugging into our lineups. These include Michael Pittman (IND at HOU, $4,900), Henry Ruggs (LV at NYJ, $4,500), Hunter Renfrow (LV at NYJ, $4,300), and Josh Reynolds (LAR at ARI, $4,200), who has seen six or more targets in five straight games and served as a cause of Kupp’s recent inconsistency.

We foresee a breakout game by explosive rookie Denzel Mims (NYJ vs. LV, $4,100), who has drawn seven or more targets in four of his last five games, and we likewise see value in teammate Breshad Perriman (NYJ vs. LV, $3,900), who has scored 10.0 or more fantasy points in each of the last three weeks in DraftKings.

Keke Coutee (HOU vs. IND, $3,500) could win some folks some serious coin this week at this price. His matchup isn’t great, but he’ll be starting outside in place of Fuller, who has flashed in the past and has a golden opportunity in front of him with Deshaun Watson under center. The game script should favor him, but regardless, we expect Coutee’s significant increase in snap share to yield at least seven or eight targets per game for at least the next three weeks when Randall Cobb returns from injured reserve.