Charted NFL Waters: Xavien Howard and measuring wide receiver value

Another installment charting NFL production and performance to highlight and bring about various storylines and aspects of the league entering the 2021 season. 

We’re continue to produce charts throughout the offseason that will break down the NFL in a variety of ways to try and unpack some narratives in the league — either ones widely discussed or ones that we’re trying to shed some light on.

For today’s topics of discussion, we’ll look at the 2020 season for Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, who led the league in interceptions, before we turn our attention to the value of wide receivers as it relates to their contract and production on the field.

Let’s begin in South Beach, though.

Reviewing Xavien Howard’s 2020 NFL season with the Dolphins

Xavien Howard had a career year in the 2020 NFL season. Howard had a league high 10 interceptions whilst limiting opposing quarterbacks to just a 51.5 percent completion rate and 48.3 passer rating when targeted.

As we see from the win percentage graphs, these interceptions also came at significant points in each game, as he contributed an average of 5 percent to the win percentage with each of his interceptions alone.

In particular, Howard’s best games of the season came against the Jets, possibly everyone’s favorite opponents last year (Rams and Browns excluded). Howard limited the Jets receivers to just three receptions for 37 yards on 14 targets over the two games while nabbing two interceptions.

Howard spent the majority of his snaps as a wide corner. Translating this to on-field tendencies, this meant Howard was typically lined up against faster, more physical receivers. This gave Howard the opportunity to limit the conversion from targets to receptions — but when passes were actually caught, they tended to be for significant yardage. This lines up very closely with the numbers receivers posted when they were matched up against Howard.

While he had a couple of tough games, particularly against the Seahawks in Week 4 and the Rams in Week 8, Howard deserves his credit where it’s due. A player that, given his numbers, probably didn’t get his due respect in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. He has, however, earned his rights to enter next season as one of the best corners in the league.

Measuring NFL receivers’ cap hit versus touchdown and yardage production

How do you measure the return a single receiver provides relative to the contract he is on? One option is to take their stats and calculate them as a ratio of their cap hit for the previous season, which is exactly what these charts look into.

The charts above measure the cost of a touchdown and yard for each receiver with over 80 targets last season. As expected, the receiver’s with a combination of explosive seasons and rookie deals featured the highest on our list, with D.K. Metcalf providing the highest returns in both categories.

Those with potentially overinflated contracts, injury issues or without their starting quarterback, such as A.J. Green and Amari Cooper, featured much further down on the list.