Predicting NFL Awards in 5 years: Can Trey Lance win MVP?

NFL Coach of the Year: Mike Vrabel

Unfortunately for me, voters typically seem to prefer new coaches. Kevin Stefanski, Matt Nagy and Sean McVay are all recent examples of first-year head coaches winning the award. Every now and then, a veteran like John Harbaugh or Jason Garrett sneaks in. The two trends here are A. a first-year coach and B. a veteran coach following a down year. How on Earth can I predict that?

For starters, I can conjure a list of future head-coaching candidates, like the 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans or Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell. Or, I can look at teams who could be on the decline within the next few years, like the Raiders or the Titans.

Having an above-average quarterback over 30 years old isn’t the most optimal situation. But do I really expect Jon Gruden to finally turn it around? No, but I can put my faith in a relatively young head coach who’s seen steady growth during his first three years.

Vrabel has helped to turn Tennessee into a perennial playoff contender and, while I forecast them to take a step back in 2021, Vrabel seems to have enough hold on the head coaching job to be around for a while. As tempting as it is to pinpoint the next up-and-coming head coach, the safer bet is to pick an existing head coach.

Other Candidates: DeMeco Ryans, Matt Campbell, Harold Goodwin, Brian Flores, Sean McVay