Early NFL Over/Under win total predictions for the 2021 season

Early NFL Over/Under Win Total Predictions: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons, 7.5 wins: Under

Even before the Julio Jones trade, I wasn’t high on the Falcons this season and that really hasn’t changed. Make no mistake, new head coach Arthur Smith should keep the offense humming with Matt Ryan still under center and with the combination of Calvin Ridley and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts ready to make noise. This defense, though, just looks like a disaster waiting to happen. They may have to average 40 points per game to finish .500 on the season. To me, that’s a team that’s going 7-10 or worse, without question.

Carolina Panthers, 7.5 wins: Under

Much like with Wentz and the Colts, my trepidation with the Panthers boils down to a lack of faith in what Sam Darnold can be. A change of scenery and getting out of New York could be what he needed to turn his career around but he’s been quite bad to this point.

That said, the pieces in Carolina around Darnold are enticing, so my confidence in taking this under is waning. Christian McCaffrey will be back and the wide receiver talent looks quite impressive. Throw in a strong young defense and there is a path to a good season. It all hinges on Darnold being an average starter but he’s yet to prove he can be that in the NFL.

New Orleans Saints, 9.0 wins: Under

It’s honestly baffling to me that oddsmakers can look at the New Orleans Saints and think that 9.0 wins is the right line to set. This team is losing a stalwart future Hall-of-Famer, Drew Brees, at quarterback and is set to replace him with either a turnover-prone Jameis Winston or a gadget combo player in Taysom Hill.

Sean Payton is a phenomenal coach and the Saints’ defense should be solid. I just don’t see a world in which Winston or Hill can get New Orleans to 10-7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 11.5 wins: Over

As reigning Super Bowl champions, it wouldn’t have been too surprising to see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win total set at 12.5 or even 13.0. This is a team that had some early adjustments to make last season with Tom Brady coming into the fold but was dominant as they got all the pieces to fit. Now they have all of those pieces (literally) coming back and get a full offseason to further coalesce as well.

I’d bet the farm that the Bucs get to at least 12 wins this season and, frankly, wouldn’t be shocked if they get to 14-3 or something like that.