4. New England Patriots
Suffice it to say that New England Patriots fans are not accustomed to what they experienced in the 2020 season. The franchise’s first foray into a season without Tom Brady under center in two decades was a rude wake-up call as the Pats went just 7-9 while both the offense and defense ranked outside of the top 20 in DVOA, per Football Outsiders.
In response to their struggles last season, Bill Belichick and the Patriots seemingly responded this offseason with uncharacteristic aggression, specifically in free agency. New England paid top dollar for tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in addition to pass-rusher Matthew Judon. Throw in other signings such as Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Davon Godchaux, among others, and it’s clear this team was trying to make a big jump.
There’s no denying that this team has upgraded the talent level from last year, particularly on offense as they now have actual NFL players ready to catch passes. However, there is more cause for concern than it feels like people are letting on, especially as it pertains to the return of quarterback Cam Newton.
Newton, outside of the first few weeks, was bad in the 2020 season. Part of that was the lack of weapons but he’s also shown some issues beyond his first year with the Patriots. Moreover, the defense, even if they get opt-outs back and have talented fresh faces, is another year older and has some holes.
All told, this is a team that should be better but, if you ask Patriots fans, they’re set to contend again and I just don’t see anything close to that. At best, New England will be lucky to back into the playoffs as a wild card. But it’s more likely they finish third in an increasingly tough AFC East and miss out on the postseason again.