Fantasy Football Guide 2021: AFC sleepers, targets, busts, strategies

The comprehensive two-part fantasy football guide from Zach Cohen starts in the AFC with sleepers, busts, strategies and much more for every team.

Before we dive into this annual behemoth of a fantasy football guide filled with sleepers, targets, busts and strategies, let me introduce you to the golden rule in fantasy football.

It’s the rule that should reign higher above all the rest, and yet, it consistently gets crushed and cast aside. Too often we overlook this rule and let the stress and worries of the game divide us on Sundays.

That was me for a while. Like many of you, I was in many leagues. It became a chore to manage them all. And I couldn’t just brush them off, either. I don’t know how. I have to put my best effort into everything. It’s impossible for me to do otherwise.

That’s when I considered quitting fantasy football. It just wasn’t fun anymore. After all, that is the golden rule. Have fun. I know, it sounds more like a youth sports mantra than a guideline for playing a reality-based, money-infused computer game.

But that’s just what fantasy football is: a game. Have fun with it. The moment you really lose is when you stop enjoying it. Look, I hate to break it to you — and I doubt that’ll be the first time I say that in this 5,300-word guide — you’re not going to win at everything.

My philosophy is to accept that and learn from what went wrong, especially if it’s just a computer game. Although, major props to those old souls still computing the data by hand. And boy, is there more data than ever now. That’s what I try to dive into in my annual fantasy football guide. I cover every draftable player per team, though this year I split it into AFC and NFC to help you easily digest the information.

As always, my research stems from 12-team PPR leagues, unless stated otherwise. Some more housekeeping for those who are unaware: ADP means Average Draft Position. You’ll also see me reference terms like RB1 or TE6. An RB1 references a top-12 player at his position, hence one starter for every team in the league. The RB1 means the overall No. 1 running back. Pay attention to the articles used if you’re unsure what I’m talking about.

I also compiled all information from Pro Football Reference and 4for4 Football, unless stated otherwise. So keep reading to see my thoughts on every player in the AFC, including:

• My favorite sleepers, like Elijah Moore and Tyrod Taylor
• My favorite players to fade, like Julio Jones and Odell Beckham
• My favorite targets, like Najee Harris and Ryan Tannehill

I also dive into my overall strategy, which includes:

• Prioritizing running backs and tight ends
• Avoiding the handcuffs to your starters
• Waiting on quarterbacks, mostly
• Balancing risk with consistency
• Streaming defenses and kickers

Of course, reach out on Twitter @ZachCohenFB if you have any questions or desire deeper analysis. And stay tuned for my NFC guide in the next few days.

Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Guide

I just can’t find myself buying a Broncos’ quarterback. Perhaps Teddy Bridgewater proves himself worthy of a desperate stream here or there. This quarterback situation as a whole really discouraged me from taking Denver’s receivers, but more on that in a second.

Javonte Williams is the future of this backfield, yet he seems to be pretty absent from the starting conversation lately. Don’t be surprised if Melvin Gordon builds off his RB 14 campaign from last season and gives you a few solid weeks to start the season. He’s one of the rare late-round running backs who have a clear path to a starting job.

I’d 100 percent take a swing on him, especially if my first two or three running backs are a bit on the riskier side. For that reason, I wouldn’t take Williams unless I have three proven running backs on my team. In case you can’t tell, the position is a hot mess in fantasy this year.

It pains me to fade players who are just talented. That applies to Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Both have high upside, but neither has a proven quarterback. Then again, Sutton did just fine with a hodgepodge of passers in 2019. Based on ADP, I’d rather take Sutton a few picks later and bank on his upside — if I’m confident with the two or three receivers I have and the receiver I plan to take within the next two rounds.

Sutton’s floor is low in this offense, though that doesn’t mean he’ll reach it. His presence in the eighth round has caused me to pass on Jeudy in every draft. Tyler Boyd, Antonio Brown, Robby Anderson and Brandin Cooks are all targets I like better, too. A deep sleeper to watch and a personal favorite of mine: K.J. Hamler.

It’s not that I don’t like Noah Fant, it’s just that I prioritize top tight ends. We rarely see anyone outside of the top five become steady weekly starters. How can we say that about Fant when he only had five games of double-digit points last season? It’s not like Denver created less competition for him, either. Sutton’s return doesn’t help Fant. Banking on Fant is banking on an increase in his involvement or a drastically improved quarterback situation. Basically, don’t wait for a tight end.