Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Guide
Yes, Patrick Mahomes is good. No, you shouldn’t spend a third-round pick on him. That’s his current ADP. Let me point something out to you. QB1 last season was Josh Allen with 396 points. QB9 was Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, both with 332.8 points. All 10 quarterbacks in that range (10 because of the tie) were separated by four points per game. Just four. Allen averaged 26.4, while Herbert averaged 22.2.
My point: The opportunity cost is significant by drafting a quarterback early. Put it like this in terms of averages. Instead of taking a 26-point passer in the third and a 10-point running back in the fourth, you can take a 17-point running back in the third and a 22-point passer in the seventh. Trust me, it pays to wait on a quarterback.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was averaging RB1 numbers (meaning he was among the top-12, which is a starter in 12-team leagues) before Le’Veon Bell came to town. No new competition and an improved offensive line make me expect an RB1 finish this season.
Tyreek Hill is a fantastic receiver who I will not draft, and it’s not his fault. Unless he falls to the middle of the second round, I really want to secure a second running back before the position drops off after Edwards-Helaire at RB14, per 4for4 Football. The reason: I can get good wide receivers later. Look, you can have as many good receivers as you want, but it comes at a cost.
Taking three receivers to start a draft will leave you scraping the bin for Myles Gaskin and James Conner. Unless you somehow manage to secure Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, James Robinson and Kareem Hunt, you’re likely in bad shape. I get that points reign supreme, but so much of fantasy football is luck. The less risk you put into your starting lineup, the better chance you’ll have at avoiding major holes.
Hot take: I like Demarcus Robinson better than Mecole Hardman. Maybe he breaks out in Year Three, but we’ve yet to see any indications of a larger role in the offense. However, Robinson appears set to take over Sammy Watkins’ role. I don’t expect him to be a weekly starter because of Hill and Travis Kelce, though I can see him being worth a waiver pickup. He’s free in almost all drafts.
That brings me to Kelce, who has been TE1 for the last five years. Why shouldn’t he repeat this season? Fun fact for you, courtesy of my home leagues over the last four seasons: Every winning team had a top-five tight end in their lineup. And of the seven championship games I looked at, 12 of the 14 teams had a top-five tight end. Don’t be afraid to take Kelce with a top-eight pick.