Predictions for NFL win totals in the 2021 season as we bet over or under for all 32 teams, going division by division through the league.
At least with some semblance of normalcy, the 2021 NFL season kicks off on Thursday and so kicks off the first 18-week, 17-game season in league history. Jeff Fisher enthusiasts lament, there is no longer a possible 8-8 or 7-9 finish for teams to come by. Teams will either be over or under .500, cut and dry.
That raises some intrigue when it comes to the NFL win totals for the 2021 season, though. We can look at some of the win totals and initially think they’re high, but we have to remember when we’re betting over or under that there are 18 games to contend with and how to do that.
NFL win totals are one of the best ways to preview the entire league for a given year, so that’s what we’re doing here. Going through each division, we’ll look at the NFL win totals for all 32 teams and place our bets and predictions on whether the teams hit the over or under for the 2021 season.
All odds are courtesy of WynnBet.
NFL Win Total Predictions: AFC East
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 wins – Over
I’m fully in on the fact that Josh Allen could regress a bit in the 2021 season considering that he made an unprecedented jump in performance from 2019 to 2020. With that said, that likely means a few more negative plays and the same number of incredible plays.
The Bills have built a strong overall infrastructure outside of Allen and this team shouldn’t have a problem getting to at least 11 wins as losing more than six games just doesn’t seem like a possibility for such a quality roster.
Miami Dolphins: 9.0 wins – Over
The Dolphins won more than nine games last year and now they have an extra tilt on the schedule to get over that number? Are the oddsmakers that low on Tua Tagovailoa — because I’m not.
What we saw in the preseason from the young quarterback looked good and his weapons are better than they have been in a long time in Miami. The offensive line is a slight concern, to be sure, but the strength of the defense gives them a baseline of 10-7 to me on the season, which hits the over.
New England Patriots: 9.0 wins – Under
Going with Mac Jones as the starter is the right choice for the Patriots and this team is going to be much better than they were last year, especially with a revamped and all-returned defense in addition to having new weapons on offense. That said, they are behind the Bills and Dolphins in the AFC East for me. 9-8 is probably the most likely outcome but I lean to the under with a rookie quarterback and a lack of faith in the top-end of the offense.
New York Jets: 6.0 wins – Under
Had Carl Lawson and Vinny Curry been able to suit up for the 2021 season, I would’ve been more interested in the Jets over for this year. Without those guys, however, the defense is going to be a travesty as they have no proven pass rush and one of the worst secondaries in the league.
The Jets will be exciting and Zach Wilson will provide some hope but a rookie quarterback and the ups and downs that come with that aren’t going to be able to overcome this defense.