2021 NFL picks against the spread, Week 1: Can Cowboys, Browns pull off upsets?
Making NFL picks against the spread for Week 1 of the 2021 season as the Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins open as underdogs.
At long last, the 2021 NFL season kicks off on Thursday with the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the always-prominent Dallas Cowboys. That, of course, will pave the way for the rest of Week 1 with 14 games on Sunday and the Monday Night Football finale. So, naturally, we have to take a look at the odds and make our NFL picks for these games.
We’ve already looked at the NFL win totals for the 2021 season with a macro lens but now we narrow the focus to Week 1 and, of course, every subsequent week for the rest of the year. We’re trying to beat the spread, tackle the odds and, if you’re actually wagering, potentially guide you in the direction of winning your bets.
This all leads to the full Week 1 slate for which we’re making our NFL picks against the spread for every game. All odds are courtesy of WynnBet.
2021 NFL picks against the spread: Week 1
Dallas Cowboys (+8.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Thursday Night Football
Tom Brady and the Bucs are clearly the better team in this matchup, hence being more than a touchdown favorite against the Cowboys. Having said that, Tampa Bay’s secondary played slightly above their heads down the stretch last season. With the Dallas receiving corps of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, Dak Prescott will do enough to keep this within a touchdown to kick off the year.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
While the Vikings aren’t a team I’m buying into this season, I’m buying less into the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offensive line remains suspect at best and Minnesota with Danielle Hunter back should be able to take advantage. Throw in a Bengals defense that still looks far from fixed and the Vikes should get a comfy road victory.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Houston Texans
Both of these teams could be outright disasters in the 2021 NFL season. Houston’s roster is probably the worst in the league and, even though the Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence, new head coach Urban Meyer might sink any floating hope.
Still, there is more talent on the Jacksonville roster, which is why I reluctantly lean towards them as the favorites in Week 1.
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-5)
Not only should you have faith in the Panthers defense potentially taking a step forward in year two under Matt Rhule but the Jets could be a disaster defensively. Sam Darnold remains a question mark but don’t expect to have anything definitively answered against his former team as he should be able to move the ball at will with his weapons and the state of the unit in New York.
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Few games on the NFL Week 1 slate were as difficult to pick than this one. I still believe the Falcons offense is going to be potent and, despite some upgrades, the Eagles should still struggle defensively, especially with some injury woes coming into the year. That was the deciding factor but not without some nervousness considering how bad Atlanta’s defense could be this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo BIlls (-6.5)
If you’ve followed anything I’ve written looking to the 2021 season, you know I’m out on the Steelers this season. So when you put them in a Week 1 road matchup against one of the best teams in the AFC, that’s not going to play out well for Pittsburgh. Josh Allen should pick apart this secondary and cruise to a comfortable win in Buffalo.
Los Angeles Chargers (EVEN) at Washington Football Team
The line for this matchup has been moving a bit but these teams aren’t as evenly matched as you oddsmakers are suggesting. Washington is being overrated as Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the world-saver for the Football Team he’s being billed as. Throw in Brandon Staley taking over this Chargers defense and Los Angeles should go on the road and make a statement just outside the nation’s capital.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Detroit Lions
How is this line only 7.5 points? I don’t care if the 49ers and Lions are playing on the moon or in Detroit, Kyle Shanahan’s team is miles better than their counterparts in Week 1. Take this number and run to the ticket window as fast as you can.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz is playing in Week 1 but are we sure that’s in favor of the Colts at home? That’s not to say that Indianapolis would be better with Jacob Eason but Wentz is still coming off of foot surgery into a relatively unfamiliar situation. That’s not great, especially when Russell Wilson is lining up for the Seahawks offense. Seattle should come into this one and simply take care of business.
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (-3.0)
Tennessee entering the season healthy is big for them as the depth of this team is the biggest concern. But looking at the starters, they have enough firepower to likely get into a shootout against the Cardinals and win, especially playing at home. There might be some sweating involved with this one but feel confident in the TItans getting the cover.
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
I’m all-in on teams making statements in Week 1 and the Browns have the best opportunity to do that as they go to Arrowhead Stadium and take on the reigning AFC Champions that ousted them in the playoffs last year.
If the Cleveland offense looks as it should right off the bat, they can score with the Chiefs in this game. Even if the Browns don’t pick up the win, they should be able to keep this close throughout the day and ultimately cover as road underdogs.
Miami Dolphins (+3.0) at New England Patriots
Even playing in Foxborough, this line doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. The Dolphins have the better roster and were the better team last year. And while the Patriots have made improvement, Miami has done the same. I like Tua Tagovailoa and Co. to pick up the win outright, so getting them as a 3-point underdog feels way too easy.
Denver Broncos (-3.0) at New York Giants
We’re going to see really quickly whether or not Daniel Jones is cut out to be the guy for the New York Giants as he plays a talent-filled Broncos defense. Spoiler: I don’t believe he is the guy. While I’m not over the moon about Teddy Bridgewater as the starting quarterback in Denver, he’s a steady option that should allow the defense to carry the team to a 1-0 record with a never-in-doubt win.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (+4.0)
On paper, the Packers should be able to handle the Saints in this game and, in fact, I do have them outright winning. But Jameis Winston has looked impressive with what we’ve seen leading into the regular season. On top of that, the New Orleans defense should be solid. That should push this game to being decided by a field goal, which means the Saints cover as underdogs.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) – Sunday Night Football
I might be more inclined to consider the Bears as heavy underdogs on Sunday Night Football if Justin Fields was starting. Then again, my belief in Matthew Stafford and the Rams is quite strong. But with Andy Dalton at the helm, there’s no chance I’m not taking Los Angeles at home to make a statement in the first time we’ll see Stafford in the Sean McVay offense.
Next. NFL picks, score predictions for Week 1. dark
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders – Monday Night Football
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have seemingly been hit by one setback or injury after another. But even still, the roster is deep enough on both sides of the ball for me to think they can survive that early in the season, especially against a Raiders team I don’t believe is equipped to consistently compete with the better teams in the AFC.