2021 NFL picks against the spread, Week 4: Do Chiefs rebound as favorites?

Making NFL picks against the spread for the Week 4 odds of the 2021 season as the Chiefs aim to rebound as favorites and the Cowboys have a curious line.

Entering Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season, there are five undefeated teams remaining. Of those teams, two play each other in Week 4. But what’s crazy looking at the odds for the upcoming slate of games is that the other three unbeaten teams are not favored with two being underdogs and one being at EVEN odds.

That’s not the only curious thing you’ll see when you look at the odds, either. Despite the Kansas City Chiefs being 1-2, they are more than a touchdown favorite on the road in Week 4. And it’s even odd to see the Falcons, a team that beat an NFC East foe last week, is an underdog at home against another team from that division. So what do we do now with our NFL picks against the spread?

The NFL odds gods were kind to us this past week with our 2021 NFL picks against the spread and our venture to make some headway early in the season. After an even .500 week with the picks the week before, we improved to an impressive 10-6-0 mark in Week 3, improving our record for the season to 27-20-1. We’re sitting pretty — and also hoping not to lose it all in Week 4.

We’re picking winners here and we have our 2021 NFL picks against the spread for Week 4 locked and ready to roll. Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet.

NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 4 of the 2021 season

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Urban Meyer has been a disaster and the Jaguars are a bad football team. But the fact that the Bengals beat a sinking Steelers ship to get to 2-1 is forcing this line too high. This offensive line and defense aren’t good enough for them to be favored by more than a touchdown.

Houston Texans (+16.0) vs. Buffalo Bills

Speaking of too many dang points.

Davis Mills did exactly nothing to inspire me to think he can keep up with Josh Allen in a true head-to-head. Buffalo, however, has a track record of playing down to lesser opponents. The Bills will win comfortably, but I see a two-touchdown victory, not 17 points or more.

Washington Football Team vs. Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)

Outside of the Cowboys, my new principle is fade the NFC East. Things have been painful for the Falcons, even in their win last week. But Washington’s defense has been far worse than advertised while the Taylor Heinicke shine is starting to wear off. In Atlanta, give me the home dog.

Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Twitter and the general public appear to still be dubious of the Cowboys but I’m not sure why. They played the defending champs to the final possession, beat a good Chargers team and destroyed the Eagles. With the Panthers not having Christian McCaffrey and being thin in the secondary, Dallas hands them their first loss comfortably.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Things could get a bit ugly for the Eagles. We saw against the Cowboys that Jalen Hurts isn’t built for a shootout and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should be hungry to prove something after a 1-2 start. Even as heavy road favorites, I’m buying the narrative for Kansas City bouncing back.

Cleveland Browns (-2.0) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Understanding the Vikings are at home, why is a team that just picked up their first win only a two-point underdog against the Browns? Minnesota benefitted from playing a sneaky bad Seahawks defense last week and Cleveland won’t be that type of matchup.

Tennessee Titans (-7.5) vs. New York Jets

I’m not going to waste time here. There is no number you could give me where I’m taking the Jets against a halfway decent NFL team.

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

Even after a 2-1 start, it feels like we’re still just guessing about what the Saints are. We know exactly what the Giants are, though, and that’s a bad football team. New Orleans’ defense will create enough opportunities for the Saints, amped up by a return to the Superdome, to win handily.

Detroit Lions (+2.5) vs. Chicago Bears

How could anyone have watched what Matt Nagy’s offense looked like last week and have them as favorites? The Lions are not good but they are competent and play extremely hard. That legitimately might be enough to beat the Bears in their current state.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.0) – Line via DraftKings

This line is unavailable on WynnBet likely due to the uncertain quarterback situation for Indianapolis. No matter who it is under center, though, the Dolphins have a good enough defense to control this game at home and take down a Colts team seemingly in a downward spiral.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)

While few teams are more exciting than the Cardinals, this is the week their “perfect” start comes crashing down. Especially from a schematic perspective, the Rams are the substantially better team in this game and, in front of the SoFi crowd, they’ll pick up another statement win.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

Until the 49ers turn the offense over to Trey Lance, that unit has a defined ceiling. With that said, the Seahawks defense has been downright bad to this point, especially late in games. I have enough faith in Kyle Shanahan to take the Niners at home.

Baltimore Ravens (EVEN) vs. Denver Broncos

Denver isn’t as fraudulent as some might surmise, even if they’ve gone 3-0 against opponents that are a combined 0-9. The Broncos are still quite good on both sides of the ball but Lamar Jackson will pose enough problems for the Ravens to eke out a win in a pick ’em matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

The Steelers might just not be as good as they often are, they might legitimately be bad. Especially with the defense banged up, Pittsburgh doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, particularly with this game in Lambeau.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.0) vs. New England Patriots

Taking Tampa in any circumstance is probably the right pick here regardless. But with Tom Brady and the Bucs coming off a tough loss to the Rams, this feels like the lock of the week. The future Hall-of-Famer’s former team is going to have a bad time.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers 

I still have the Chargers winning this game because I do believe that they’re the better team when you get down to it. However, the Raiders are legit and have knack for playing in close games. With getting inside a field goal meaning they cover, I’m taking the silver and black against the spread.