Free agency target Chris Godwin
Let me make this clear from the start; Chris Godwin is a good football player and a good receiver. He runs sharp routes, has good athleticism, and can work out of the slot or on the outside. The issue I have with him is that Godwin has never had to be “the guy” for a team to this point. He has always split reps with threats like Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and O.J. Howard before his fall-off.
He enters free agency as one of the hottest names and likely the top receiver. He may get in the range of $20-million a season and be a top-five paid receiver by the time the market settles. To me, that is an overpay for a player of his caliber. While he would still be an effective receiver, it shouldn’t be to the tune of a top contract.
Add in the fact that he has been a part of dynamic passing attacks for the past three seasons and Godwin makes the case for overrated. Tom Brady was an obvious aid to this offense while Jameis Winston, despite his mistakes, was still putting up massive yards in his last year with Tampa Bay. A worse offense where he is the only top threat may lead to some regression for Godwin.
Will Godwin bust out as a free agent? Probably not but expecting him to play in the caliber of where he is going to get paid is a different story. If he goes into an offense where he is a co-top target, he should do well. That said, if he goes to a team that pays him a lot to be their go-to guy, don’t be surprised to see him not live up to his deal.
As free agency draws near, the league will be prepared to throw its cap money around. While many players added will become key starters for their team, these five names seem like potential overpays. While each can be a serviceable player, don’t be surprised if each receives a deal far more than what their value is and thus become overrated.