How will the NFL’s new overtime rule affect future playoff games?

The dreaded overtime rule was addressed Tuesday at the NFL’s annual owners/league meetings. But just how impactful will the change be on postseason play as we know it?

Some fans hate the NFL’s overtime system that was put into place in 2010. Others feel that it’s fair and it’s just as much a part of the game as scoring touchdowns or recording safeties.

Whatever side of the fence you land on, there’s no denying this may have been the most anticipated rule change since the pass interference debacle in the 2018 season’s NFC Championship game.

Clearly, the league’s decision to amend the OT rule and ensure that both teams get at least a possession to match the other feels like a direct response to the Kansas City Chiefs’ OT win over the Buffalo Bills in last season’s AFC Divisional round.

There’s the belief that what could have been the best playoff game of all time ended on what some feel was an unfair note due to the fact that OT games enlist the sudden death rule if a team scores a touchdown on its opening drive.

So what should we make of the change? For starters, it’s an even more direct response to the results of OT playoff games. According to the NFL Research page on Twitter, there have been 12 postseason games in the NFL that have gone to overtime since the 2010 season. Of those 12, seven were won by the team who got the ball first and ended things with a game-sealing TD on that first OT drive, while three others went on to win the game outright, giving the first possessors of the ball an 83.3% winning percentage.

I am all in favor of this decision for several reasons. First off, as a native Buffalonian and having been in the Bills organization at the time, it stung seeing the team fall in that fashion in the divisional round. But what stood out to me about it even more was the fact that one defense was being held accountable, while the other was let off the hook.

Sure, the Bills could have gotten the stop in OT (or with 13 seconds left in regulation, but let’s not go back down that black hole of thoughts). But why is it that their defense got to be tested and KC’s didn’t? I mean, we really could argue that the game was won on a coin toss.

Who knows what could’ve happened after the magic that Josh Allen made in that game, but especially in the clutch throughout the second half.

Do the Bills win if they win the OT coin toss? Would Allen have gone down and matched Patrick Mahomes on that ensuing drive if given the chance? Could the Chiefs’ defense actually stop the Bills after allowing 15 points in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter? Who would have won on the next sudden death score?

We may never know with that game, but now we’ll see how it could affect playoff games for the foreseeable future.

Another reason why I feel this is a positive development for the league is that the game has become so devoted to offensive production. Also since 2010, NFL teams have averaged 22 or more points per game in 11 of the 12 seasons in that span. By comparison, there were only 10 such occurrences in the league’s first 90 seasons.

So to say “defenses need to earn a stop,” I totally understand that sentiment. And it’s hard to stick up for the Bills in how their season ended when the Cincinnati Bengals were able to prevail over KC the next week in the AFC title game, despite not getting the first possession of OT either.

But it’s hard to ignore how much the game is offensively driven now. The Tom Brady rule, tightening up pass interference rules for wide receivers, the landing on the QB rule; all of which have been added to make things easier for offenses all at the expense of defensive players.

I’m also a fan of this decision because it’s just changing for the NFL playoffs, not the regular season. The Bills-Chiefs mayhem felt much more heightened due to it being a postseason matchup. This type of finish does not cause as much ruckus during the regular season, so I’m glad there wasn’t a push to change it there.

How loud was the roar to change NFL OT rules when KC did exactly the same thing to the Chargers in Week 15 as it did to the Bills in the divisional round?

I’m glad the OT change is only for the playoffs as well through a health and safety lens. There’s no need to be potentially extending regular season games that already take place in a lengthy 18-week, 17-game slate.

But when it comes to this rule, one aspect that really dawned on me throughout this process was Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s thoughts on the finish. He may have been on the winning side of it this time around in the divisional round, but he knows the pain of falling in OT without getting an offensive possession from when the Patriots knocked off KC in the 2018 season’s AFC Championship.

Reid had this to share about a possible OT change with the NFL Network back in January:

"“I had a chance to talk with (Bills head coach) Sean (McDermott) afterward, and that I’m sure is something they’re going to look at again, too. And I wouldn’t be opposed to it — it’s a hard thing. It was great for us last night, but is it great for the game which is the most important thing we should all be looking out for? To make things equal, it probably needs to be able to hit both offenses, both defenses.”"

This decision may only take effect on a game or two each season. As a playoff-only rule, however, there’s no telling how this will change the fates of championship contenders for years to come.