Can Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence break out in 2022?

Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images
Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images /

In 2021, Jacksonville Jaguars’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence had a mostly underwhelming and unfair season. Can he break out in 2022?

When the 2020 season began, the race for the first overall pick began.  The “Tank for Trevor” season was upon us, with the grand prize being generational prospect Trevor Lawrence from Clemson.

Obviously, the Jacksonville Jaguars “won” this prize, drafting him first overall in 2021.

In his rookie season, Lawrence formed what appeared to be a promising duo with then Head Coach Urban Meyer.

Between the on-field mess and off-field doings of Meyer, the marriage ended after one rough season.

It’s clear that Urban Meyer was not only way over his head, but an immature “man” as well.

So, the Jaguars fixed this by giving Trevor Lawrence an adult as Head Coach, hiring former Super Bowl champion Doug Pederson, recently Head Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Doug Pederson brings stability to the Jaguars coaching, something they haven’t had…ever?

Pederson, perhaps most importantly, has a record of developing a quarterback in his recent past, taking what was a “raw” prospect in Carson Wentz, and turning him into an MVP candidate in 2017.

While most of us are going to pay attention to the on-field product and the players, having Doug Pederson develop Trevor Lawrence in practice and in meetings is going to be a huge boost for the young player.

The Jaguars were also active in free agency, signing a good bit of offensive players for Lawrence.

Along the offensive line, Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor figure to be the two starting tackles.

They also signed Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff as well.  The Jaguars’ offensive line figures to be a bit better than it was last year, which can only help Lawrence.

Trevor Lawrence will also have two very skilled running backs to play with in James Robinson and Travis Etienne.

As for the receivers, the Jaguars signed Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.  They also still have Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones, a skilled veteran.

Jacksonville signed Evan Engram at tight end, who has shown spurts of being very good.  He’s a great athlete, which is a nice bonus.

While Lawrence isn’t playing with elite players, he’s got a nice stable of offensive skill players to develop with.  There are quite a few situations in the NFL where quarterbacks have it worse.

Doug Pederson has built a quality staff as well, with Press Taylor as the offensive coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter as the passing game coordinator, and Mike McCoy as the quarterbacks’ coach.

Expect the Jaguars to run a West Coast offense, which has seen great success throughout the history of the NFL.

I think the Jaguars can be a respectable team in 2022.  They’ll probably still have a top ten pick, but they can win 6-8 games if all goes well.

So, what kind of production can we expect from Trevor Lawrence?

Now that he’ll be secure in a stable coaching situation, is entering year two, and will have better pass catchers around him, what will his on-the-field production look like?

Predicting stats is hard and kind of pointless, but I’m going to go ahead and predict his stat line for year two, within reason.

Let’s say Trevor Lawrence passes for 3,800 yards, has a 63.2% completion percentage, and tosses 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

I think that can be an attainable stat line for Trevor Lawrence in 2022.